Polls give Burnham's Labour eight-point lead as Ipsos puts Tories second, ahead of Reform
Two polls published on 25 October put Labour eight points ahead under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Ipsos has the Conservatives second and Reform third. Opinium has Reform second.
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The story, neutrally told
Left · 1Two polls published on the weekend of 25 October gave Andy Burnham's Labour an eight-point lead over its rivals, days before Burnham marks 100 days as Prime Minister and Chancellor John Healey delivers the Budget. Daily MirrorL “According to two surveys published this weekend, Mr Burnham's party now has an eight-point lead over Tory and Reform rivals.”“Mr Burnham set to mark 100 days in Downing Street on Tuesday - 24 hours before Chancellor John Healey delivers the Budget” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Right · 1Ipsos put Labour on 32%, up five points on last month. The Conservatives were on 24%, up three, and Reform UK on 20%, down three. Daily MailR “The latest Ipsos survey puts Labour on 32 per cent support, which is up five percentage points from last month.”“Reform UK has slipped below the Tories to 20 per cent support following a three-point fall since last month.” Read at Daily Mail ↗ Right · 1The Mail reports that the Greens fell five points to 8%. It says this is the Conservatives' first time in second place with Ipsos since June last year. Daily MailR “The Greens are down five points to 8 per cent”“in second place for the first time since June last year” Read at Daily Mail ↗
Mixed · 2Ipsos described this as Labour's largest lead of the current Parliament. The Mail says it is the party's largest poll lead since the 2024 general election. Daily MirrorL “Pollsters Ipsos said it was the largest lead it had recorded for Labour this Parliament.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Daily MailR “Labour has surged to its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election” Read at Daily Mail ↗ Left · 1A second pollster, Opinium, also found an eight-point Labour lead, but with different positions behind. It had Labour on 30%, Reform second on 22%, the Conservatives on 20%, the Greens on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. Daily MirrorL “Opinium also found Labour had an eight point lead on 30% with Nigel Farage's embattled Reform trailing in second place on 22% and the Tories on 20%. It also found the Greens on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗ Right · 1The Ipsos poll was conducted between 15 and 22 October. It found 35% satisfied with Kemi Badenoch's performance as Conservative leader (up seven points) and 39% dissatisfied (down seven), her best Ipsos rating so far. Daily MailR “The latest Ipsos poll, conducted between October 15 and 22, found 35 per cent are satisfied with the job Mrs Badenoch is doing as Tory leader – up seven points since September.” Read at Daily Mail ↗
Right · 1Burnham's own ratings were 35% satisfied (up four) and 45% dissatisfied (down one). The Government's net satisfaction of -43 is the highest since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister in 2022, with 23% satisfied and 66% dissatisfied. Daily MailR “The same proportion (35 per cent) are satisfied with the job Mr Burnham is doing as Prime Minister (up four points) but 45 per cent are dissatisfied (down one point).”“The Government's net satisfaction score of -43 is the highest recorded since Boris Johnson was PM in 2022.” Read at Daily Mail ↗ Right · 1Ipsos says Labour and the Conservatives are losing fewer voters to Reform and the Greens. The Tories are losing 16% of their 2024 vote to Reform, down from 22%, and Labour is losing 5% to the Greens, down from 12%. The Mail also reports that the Greens' leader Zack Polanski has seen his ratings worsen amid an antisemitism crisis in the party. Daily MailR “The Tories are losing 16 per cent of their 2024 vote to Reform, which is down from 22 per cent last month.”“Labour are losing 5 per cent of their 2024 support to the Greens, which is down from 12 per cent in September.”“as Zack Polanski's outfit continues to battle an anti-Semitism crisis” Read at Daily Mail ↗ Mixed · 2Keiran Pedley, Ipsos's director of politics, said Labour under Burnham is "resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them", and that on the right the Conservatives, not Reform, are in "clear second place". He warned against overreacting to one poll, saying British politics is volatile and the picture could change again within six months. Daily MailR “'The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the Left behind them.” Read at Daily Mail ↗ Daily MirrorL “"We should be mindful against overreacting to one poll.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗
Left · 1The Mirror notes that Burnham has repeatedly ruled out an early general election. It says that if Labour's poll position keeps improving, that will reignite speculation. In September he told ITV Calendar the next election would be in 2029 and that he could "knock that dead". Daily MirrorL “Mr Burnham has repeatedly ruled out the prospect of an early general election.”“All of this speculation on an early election - I can knock that dead.” Read at Daily Mirror ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- The Mirror leads on a Labour boost for Burnham's government, calling the party "resurgent" ahead of a crunch week of the 100-day mark and the Budget. It describes Reform as "embattled".
- Emphasis
- Both polls, the Ipsos record lead, the Budget, and Burnham's denials of an early election.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Omits the Ipsos satisfaction ratings, including Burnham's own, which are still net negative. It also omits Badenoch's rising personal ratings and the Greens' difficulties.
- Charged language
- “resurgent”“embattled”
- For example
-
“Andy Burnham's "resurgent" Labour has secured a boost in the polls” — Daily Mirror
“Nigel Farage's embattled Reform trailing in second place on 22%” — Daily Mirror
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- The Mail leads on Labour's surge but gives equal weight to the Conservatives overtaking Reform and to Badenoch's growing popularity. It attributes Reform's slide to "a slew of recent controversies".
- Emphasis
- Ipsos detail: Tory second place, Badenoch's best ratings, the Greens' antisemitism crisis, and the Government's still-negative satisfaction (66% dissatisfied).
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the Opinium poll, which has Reform second. It also does not mention Burnham's denials of an early election.
- Charged language
- “surge”“bounce”“slew of recent controversies”“eco-populist”
- For example
-
“Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity grows” — Daily Mail
“After a slew of recent controversies for Nigel Farage's party” — Daily Mail
What every side reports
- Ipsos has Labour on 32% (up five), the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 20%.
- The result is an eight-point Labour lead and the largest Ipsos has recorded in this Parliament.
- Ipsos's Keiran Pedley described Labour as resurgent and cautioned against overreacting to one poll.
- The Budget falls in the coming week.
Where accounts differ
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Who is second behind Labour
- Left
- The Mirror reports Ipsos has the Tories second on 24%. It also reports that Opinium has Reform second on 22% and the Tories on 20%.
- Right
- The Mail reports only the Ipsos result, with the Tories second and Reform third, and calls the Tories' second place a clear shift.
Andy Burnham person
Burnham has said the next election will be in 2029 and that he will not call an early one. The Mirror quotes him as saying he can "knock that dead".
“Mr Burnham has repeatedly ruled out the prospect of an early general election.” — Daily Mirror
Kemi Badenoch person
The Mail says Badenoch has her highest personal ratings as Tory leader (35% satisfied) and that the Conservatives are second for the first time since June last year.
“Kemi Badenoch enjoys her highest personal ratings since she became Leader of the Opposition in November 2024.” — Daily Mail
Reform UK party
Reform UK is described as slipping: third on 20% in Ipsos and second on 22% in Opinium. The Mail attributes this to recent controversies. No Reform response is quoted.
“Reform UK has slipped below the Tories to 20 per cent support following a three-point fall since last month.” — Daily Mail
Labour Party party
Labour is shown consolidating left-leaning voters and losing fewer to the Greens, but the Government's own satisfaction ratings remain negative.
“Labour are losing 5 per cent of their 2024 support to the Greens, which is down from 12 per cent in September.” — Daily Mail
Left1 article
-
Andy Burnham's 'resurgent' Labour secures poll boost over Reform and Tories ahead of crunch week
Sympathetic Presents the polls as a boost for Burnham's Labour and points to election speculation, while carrying Ipsos's caution against over-reading one poll.
Centre0 articles
No coverage yet.
Right1 article
-
Mixed Reports Labour's lead in detail but highlights the Conservative revival under Badenoch, Reform's slide and the Greens' troubles, and notes that government satisfaction is still low.
- 25 Oct 08:00 First Daily MirrorL Andy Burnham's 'resurgent' Labour secures poll boost over Reform and Tories ahead of crunch week
- 25 Oct 12:16 +4h 17m Daily MailR Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity grows
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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