Polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie ahead of Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
Three polls released Oct. 13-14 put Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 2 to 4 points ahead of President Lula in valid votes or voting intentions, all within or near their margins of error, ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied ahead of the Oct. 25 presidential runoff, according to polls released on Oct. 13 and 14. Anadolu AgencyN “are statistically tied ahead of an Oct. 25 presidential runoff, according to polls released Tuesday by PoderData/Aya and BTG/Nexus.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ The Straits TimesRC “The poll's result still represents a technical tie as the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Centre · 1On Oct. 13, PoderData/Aya put Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 51% of valid votes against 49% for Lula, of the Workers' Party. BTG/Nexus had Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48%. Anadolu AgencyN “The PoderData/Aya survey put Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), at 51% of valid votes, compared to 49% for Lula, of the Workers' Party (PT).”“The BTG/Nexus poll showed Bolsonaro with 52% and Lula with 48%.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Centre · 1PoderData/Aya's gap was narrower than in its Oct. 8 survey, when Bolsonaro led 53% to 47%, a 2-point gain for Lula. In voting intentions, PoderData/Aya had Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 46%, and BTG/Nexus had 48% and 45%. Anadolu AgencyN “PoderData/Aya recorded a narrower gap than in its survey on Oct. 8, when Bolsonaro led Lula by 53% to 47%.”“PoderData/Aya recorded 48% for Bolsonaro and 46% for Lula, while BTG/Nexus put the candidates at 48% and 45%, respectively.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Centre · 1PoderData/Aya interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone from Oct. 10 to 12 (margin of error 1.8 points). BTG/Nexus, commissioned by BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,002 voters aged 16 and older in the same period (margin 2 points). Both were registered with the Superior Electoral Court. Anadolu AgencyN “PoderData/Aya interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone between Oct. 10 and 12, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.”“The BTG/Nexus survey was commissioned by financial institution BTG Pactual. Both polls were registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗ Right · 1On Oct. 14, a Quaest poll showed Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, at 46% against 44% for Lula, according to Reuters. It was Quaest's first poll after the first round. The Straits TimesRC “The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46% of the vote compared with 44% for the leftist Lula, according to the poll.”“It is the first Quaest poll after the first-round vote earlier this month, in which the younger Bolsonaro surprisingly led Lula” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Right · 1Quaest surveyed 2,154 people from Oct. 10 to 13; 9% said they would vote blank or null or not vote, and 1% were undecided. The Straits TimesRC “9% of the respondents said they would cast a blank or null vote or intend not to vote, while undecided voters made up 1%, the poll showed”“Quaest surveyed 2,154 people between October 10-13” Read at The Straits Times ↗
Centre · 1In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Anadolu AgencyN “In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula secured 45.16%, according to the results.” Read at Anadolu Agency ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Anadolu presents a data-focused report on two polls, headlined as a technical tie, with detailed methodology and the trend since the Oct. 8 PoderData survey.
- Emphasis
- Margins of error, sample sizes, fieldwork dates and Lula's 2-point gain.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not include the later Quaest poll, which was published after it.
- For example
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“Both results fall within the respective margins of error, indicating a technical tie between the candidates.” — Anadolu Agency
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- The Straits Times runs Reuters copy headlined on Bolsonaro slightly leading, while noting the result is still a technical tie.
- Emphasis
- Bolsonaro's lead in the Quaest poll and his surprise first-round lead; labels him right-wing and Lula leftist.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the PoderData/Aya or BTG/Nexus polls or the earlier trend.
- Charged language
- “right-wing senator”“leftist Lula”
- For example
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“Flavio Bolsonaro slightly leads Lula in Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows” — The Straits Times
“The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro” — The Straits Times
What every side reports
- The runoff is on Oct. 25 between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead in the polls reported, within margins of error.
- Bolsonaro led the Oct. 4 first round.
Where accounts differ
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How to characterise the race
- Centre
- Anadolu headlines a technical tie.
- Right
- The Straits Times (Reuters) headlines Bolsonaro slightly ahead, while saying the result is still a technical tie.
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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Brazilian polls show Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie
Neutral Factual poll roundup stressing the technical tie and methodology.
Right1 article
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Flavio Bolsonaro slightly leads Lula in Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows
Neutral Reuters wire copy leading on Bolsonaro's slight Quaest lead, with the technical-tie caveat.
- 13 Oct 17:03 First Anadolu AgencyN Brazilian polls show Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie
- 14 Oct 22:35 +29h 32m The Straits TimesRC Flavio Bolsonaro slightly leads Lula in Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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