Putin at Valdai: expects more conflicts, warns of nuclear risk and AI totalitarianism

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday 1 October that continued international conflicts in the coming years are very likely, in a speech to the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. 1 2 He tied this to fundamental shifts in the global order, which he said fuel ambitions and a willingness to take risks, though he said the situation would improve as Western hegemony waned. 2 Putin warned that escalating retaliation could reach a "fatal point of no return" and said the arsenals of leading powers hold weapons able to destroy all life or leave the Earth in a catastrophic state, which must be avoided. 2

On the UN, he said it works in "a less collegial and democratic manner" than intended; Russia supports fair reform but, he said, this is impossible now without an internal consensus, and Asia, Africa and Latin America should play a bigger role. 1 On artificial intelligence, he said experts warn its spread could strip people of individuality, and that "digital totalitarianism" would be as dead-end, bleak and anti-human as the totalitarian societies of the past. 1 On Ukraine, Putin said Ukraine could not strike deep inside Russia without Western technical support, which he called direct involvement in the conflict, and said using Ukraine as a proxy is a threat to Russia. 2

He said Ukrainian strikes on refineries had cost Russia 1% of GDP and that Ukraine had "partially achieved its objectives", and that Ukraine had damaged more than 100 Russian vessels in the Black Sea, with Moscow now responding. 2 He said Russia would consider using its full range of weapons if Kaliningrad were threatened, that Russia does not plan to attack any European country "not in 2030, not in 2050", and that Russia would not attack arms-producing enterprises in countries supplying Ukraine tomorrow, "but that's a threat". 2 The same day the Kremlin said Russia's recent letter to Nato on Kaliningrad should not be seen as confrontational; the letter accused the alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course". 2

Putin also said Russia would back a possible trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping and Donald Trump once an agenda is worked out, hoped the Strait of Hormuz stays open and Iran sanctions are lifted, said Russia's offer to take Iran's enriched uranium stands, and voiced concern over Japan's militarisation while saying Japanese firms may keep operating in Russia. 2