Two Iowa Senate polls show Hinson and Turek in a close race, with differing leaders

A Quantus Insights poll of Iowa likely voters found Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson with 47.1% and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek with 45.8%, a 1.3-point gap that the pollster called "closely divided". 1 In the Quantus poll, Libertarian Thomas Laehn had 1.7% and 5.4% were undecided; counting undecided voters who lean toward a candidate, Hinson led 48.5% to 46.6%, and in a question naming only the two major-party candidates she led 48.9% to 46.7%. 1 Quantus found independents favouring Turek by 17 points, Hinson up 10 points among men and Turek up 12 among women, and Turek far ahead among voters aged 18-29; it concluded that Turek's strength among women and independents offsets Hinson's rural advantage. The survey was taken September 28-29, 2026, among 714 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.8 points. 1

A Fox News poll conducted September 24-28, 2026, instead put Turek ahead of Hinson 49% to 47% among likely voters, and 50% to 46% among registered voters, both within the margin of error. 2 Fox News reported that Democrats are more united behind Turek (96%) than Republicans are behind Hinson (87%), that independents favour Turek two-to-one, and that Iowa voters are split on Senate control, 49% preferring Democratic and 48% Republican; it said the state's Republican-leaning partisan structure keeps the race tight. 2 In the Fox poll, 6 in 10 said cost of living will be extremely important to their vote, ahead of President Donald Trump (43%), immigration (39%) and AI technology (27%); voters prioritising immigration favour Hinson, while those prioritising the other three favour Turek. Trump's job approval in Iowa was 42%, with 57% disapproving. 2

Fox found Hinson viewed favourably by 42% and unfavourably by 50%, against 48% favourable and 40% unfavourable for Turek, and 88% of Turek's backers said they were committed versus 77% of Hinson's. Republican pollster Daron Shaw said history and the state's makeup suggest Hinson "can pull this out" but that the warning signs are clear. 2 Breitbart placed the Quantus result alongside a September Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey with Hinson leading 50% to 45%, and noted the RealClearPolling average showed Turek up by less than half a point. 1 Fox also polled the governor's race, where Democrat Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn 53% to 44% among likely voters, and noted Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator in 18 years. 2