Quebec votes with separatist Parti Québécois favoured to win

Right · 1Quebec's provincial election took place on 5 October, with the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) favoured to win, according to polls cited by all three articles. 1 2 Right · 1Polls open at 9:30 a.m. local time and close at 8 p.m., and a provisional result was expected around midnight. 2 Right · 1A Leger poll released on 3 October put the PQ at 29%, ahead of the Liberals on 25%, the Conservatives on 20% and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) on 14%. Because of vote-splitting, that could be enough for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. 2 1

Mixed · 2The PQ won three seats in 2022 and would return to power after 12 years in opposition; the CAQ has governed since 2018. 3 1 Right · 1Experts and polls cited by AFP and Reuters link the PQ's rise to frustration over affordability, a strained health system and declining public services, not a surge in support for independence. Reuters cites a Leger poll in which 77% of voters wanted a change of government. 1 2 Right · 1Support for independence is put at roughly 30% in recent surveys, against nearly 50% at the 1995 referendum. Quebec has held two referendums, in 1980 and 1995, and both were lost by the independence side. The 1995 result was close, with 50.58% voting to stay. 1 2

Mixed · 2PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, says he will call a referendum if elected, but not while Trump is in office. AFP reports he ruled one out until at least 2029; Hindustan Times says the plan is a referendum after Trump leaves office in January 2029. At a 23 September debate he said he would call a vote even if polls showed it could not succeed. 1 3 2 Right · 1Leger president Jean-Marc Leger said PQ support would jump if it promised not to poll Quebecers on independence: "Voters want this government, but without the referendum." 2 Right · 1Trump's tariffs on aluminum, steel and manufacturing have hit Quebec hard. Reuters reports that Premier Christine Frechette framed the vote as being about Trump, and that St-Pierre Plamondon has ruled out bilateral talks with Washington for tariff relief. 2

Right · 1The result is a test for Prime Minister Mark Carney's national-unity message. AFP says the PQ's expected success is not seen as a rejection of his stance against Trump, as he is popular in Quebec. Carney said his government would work with the next premier "in a spirit of cooperative federalism". St-Pierre Plamondon says relations would be a "balance of power" and that cooperation depends on Quebec being respected. Alberta also holds a non-binding independence vote this month. 1 2 Right · 1St-Pierre Plamondon also proposes to abolish the activities of Quebec's lieutenant-governor and redirect the budget to fighting homelessness. AFP cites a 2025 Leger poll in which 87% of Quebecers felt no attachment to the British monarchy. 1 Centre · 1Hindustan Times reports anxiety among Quebec's Indo-Canadian community, estimated at 100,000 to 125,000 people, over the prospect of a referendum. Community figures it quotes fear division and say most would back the Liberals, while one young resident called a referendum a non-issue for her generation. 3