Record Texas early voting as Talarico and Paxton run a tight Senate race

Centre · 1More than 4.5 million Texans had voted early by Monday 26 October, with the secretary of state's unofficial count at 4,538,667 in-person and mail ballots, nearly 24 percent of registered voters. 1 2 Centre · 1Newsweek reports early voting is up 74 percent on the same point in the 2022 midterms, and analysts expect total turnout of about 10 million, against 8.1 million in 2022. 1 2 Mixed · 2The Senate race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who beat Sen. John Cornyn in a primary that went to a runoff; Cornyn's seat is open. 3 2

Centre · 1Polls put the two within or near their margins of error: a Fox News poll (15-19 October) had them tied at 49% among likely voters, Emerson College/Nexstar had Talarico narrowly ahead, and Texas Public Opinion Research, run by a Democrat, had him up 51%-47%. 1 2 Centre · 1Newsweek says Talarico leads five of six recent public polls, all within each poll's margin of error, and that the RealClearPolitics average has him ahead by about 1.5 to 1.8 points; Kalshi gave him a 65 percent chance of winning and Polymarket 64 percent. 2 1 Mixed · 2Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024. 1 3

Right · 1Democrats appear more enthusiastic: Fox's poll found 69% of Democrats extremely interested in the election against 61% of Republicans, and 98% of Democrats backing Talarico against 90% of Republicans backing Paxton. 3 Centre · 1Through 23 October, voters with a Democratic primary history outnumbered Republican ones by about 75,000, but Republican consultant Derek Ryan expects the gap to narrow because more habitual Republican voters had yet to cast ballots, and polling shows more Republicans plan to vote on Election Day. 2 Mixed · 2Trump is making his fourth Texas visit since Labor Day, with stops in Corpus Christi and Lubbock alongside Paxton; Talarico is campaigning at Texas Tech in Lubbock the same evening. Newsweek's account of the itinerary lists Lubbock and Waco. 3 2

Centre · 1Cost of living is voters' top concern: polls show more trust in Talarico on prices and corruption and in Paxton on immigration. Talarico argues "We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis," while Paxton calls him "the most radical Democrat ever to run statewide" and proposes a $25,000 medical-expense deduction per family member. 2 Mixed · 2Paxton's baggage is a recurring theme: Fox notes his 2023 House impeachment, from which the state Senate acquitted him, and a contentious divorce; Newsweek quotes Rice's Mark Jones calling him "the most deeply flawed candidate" Texas Republicans have run in the modern era. 3 2 Centre · 1Money is heavy: AdImpact counted $490.4 million in race advertising by 12 October, and Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which passed the same amount to a group backing Paxton; Talarico accused Musk of trying to buy the seat. 1

Right · 1Reason, in an opinion piece, argues that a backlash against data centers, with 57 percent of Texans in August 2026 opposing a local project, is blunting the Republican growth message and helping Talarico, alongside Trump's unpopular tariffs and war. 4