Republicans book over $700m in new midterm ads since September, amid doubts about timing

Left · 1Republicans have made more than $700 million of new advertising bookings in congressional races since 1 September, according to an NBC News analysis of data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. 1 Left · 1That is on top of reservations made over the summer. Democrats booked more than $430 million in new reservations across those races in September. 1 Left · 1NBC reported that almost 7 of every 10 newly booked Senate ad dollars come from Republicans, and a bit less than 6 in 10 in the House. 1

Left · 1Two groups, No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC, have made more than $150 million in new bookings across dozens of races. They have not said where their money comes from, but NBC cited The New York Times as confirming that Trump's main super PAC, MAGA Inc., is primarily funding the effort. 1 Left · 1Texas is the focus. NBC said Republicans have put almost $150 million of new ad money behind Senate nominee Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico, including more than $115 million booked by Texas PAC. 1 Left · 1AP, citing AdImpact, put actual spending over the past month at more than $83 million for Texas PAC, which it described as aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and more than $22 million for MAGA Inc. 2

Left · 2AP reported that major Republican groups hold about $1 billion, against roughly $579 million for comparable Democratic groups. MAGA Inc. had nearly $416 million in cash at the end of August. 2 3 Left · 2The late timing has been costly. Outside groups pay more than candidates, and four Republican Senate campaign officials told AP that groups that reserved time in spring paid much less than MAGA Inc. and its affiliates, which are sometimes paying more than five times the earlier price. 2 3 Left · 1In one example, Texas PAC was charged $450,000 for a single spot in the Austin market during a football game last month, while Talarico's campaign paid $50,000 for a spot in the same game and market, per AdImpact. 2

Left · 1A MAGA Inc. representative, speaking anonymously, said the spending has kept races more competitive than they would otherwise be and that the group has sometimes been the only one on air criticising Democratic candidates. 2 Left · 2Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said the party may have waited too long: "A million dollars of advertising in October is a drop in the bucket." Sen. Thom Tillis, who is retiring, said that in the final month "you pretty much have to place your bets." 3 2 Left · 2Thune's group began pulling back from North Carolina last week. NBC reported that the top Senate Republican super PAC reallocated millions meant for North Carolina to Kansas, a seat Republicans had felt comfortable about until recently. 2 1

Left · 1Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the Senate GOP campaign arm, called the cash advantage key to holding the majority. He said Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles told him "money will not be our problem." 1 Left · 2Democrats cast the spending as a sign of weakness. Senate Majority PAC's Lauren French called it "a swell of Republican panic". Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called the spending "obscene" but said he bet his party's better candidates and political climate could beat it. 1 2 Left · 2Democratic strategist Meredith Kelly said being outspent is "a huge problem" for the party. The Independent and AP cite voter concerns about costs, Trump's standing and the war in Iran, and say Trump has stepped up rallies, telling supporters in Nebraska "In a true way, I am running." 1 3

Left · 1AP noted that these are the first national elections since the Supreme Court in June erased limits on coordinated party spending with congressional and presidential candidates. It also said money alone has not guaranteed wins, pointing to Kamala Harris in 2024. 2