Rubio says Iran has lost control of Strait of Hormuz; IRGC adviser says it is closed

Mixed · 2US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday 7 October, during a visit to Athens, that Iran had "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz. 1 2 Right · 1He based the claim on oil flows, saying "There's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began." 1 Mixed · 2Rubio also said Iran's economy was "in total and complete freefall" under "crippling sanctions", and predicted it would reach a point "few countries in the world have experienced". 1 2

Centre · 1He accused Iran's leadership of spending revenue on Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias and the Houthis rather than on its people. 2 Centre · 1The National cited ship-tracking firm Kpler: a seven-day moving average of Gulf crude exports was 18.3 million barrels per day on 30 September, against 18 million in the 12 months before the war. The figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and by other methods. 2 Centre · 1Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief, maintained that the strait is closed and that Iran's armed forces have "full control" until its "legitimate demands" are met. 2

Centre · 1Naqdi said routes Iran deems illegal would soon be closed, apparently the southern route along Oman's coast, and that they were used by small boats smuggling oil to tankers, challenging the narrative that exports are back to prewar levels. 2 Centre · 1Context: the US-Iran war is in its seventh month. The two sides have exchanged proposals, but President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest offer. Vice President JD Vance told Reuters Iran must make a "meaningful" cut in enrichment capacity and that the US would not "trade words for actions". 2