Russian satellite Kosmos-2612 closes in on Ukraine-supporting ICEYE-X36 radar satellite

Mixed · 2On 18 October the Russian satellite Kosmos-2612 (spelled Cosmos 2612 by US sources) approached ICEYE-X36, a radar imaging satellite operated by the Finnish-American company ICEYE, at the closest range yet recorded for such an encounter in low Earth orbit. 1 2 Left · 1Observational astronomer Marco Langbroek estimated that at closest approach, at 1:35 a.m. GMT on 18 October, the two spacecraft were between 26 and 470 metres apart; measurement errors prevent a more precise figure. 1 Mixed · 2Both outlets say ICEYE supplies imagery to Ukraine's military; Meduza adds that the images cover Russian military facilities such as airfields, naval ports and oil refineries. 1 2

Mixed · 2The accounts of the approach's duration differ: Meduza says the final approach followed maneuvers that began four days earlier, while the Washington Examiner says the satellite spent more than two weeks travelling toward ICEYE-X36. 1 2 Mixed · 2It was not the first such episode. Kosmos 2610, 2611, 2612 and 2613 made fuel-intensive maneuvers toward the same ICEYE satellite in spring (May, according to a US Space Force fact sheet cited by the Examiner); Meduza says they and Kosmos-2614 were launched with 2609 on one rocket from Plesetsk on 16 April. 1 2 Left · 1Independent researcher Bart Hendrickx told Meduza he knew of no earlier encounter at such close range in low Earth orbit, and that the fuel used suggested these were not ordinary Earth-observation or communications satellites. 1

Right · 1Thomas DiNanno, US undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said last week that Cosmos 2612 had been "intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite, behaviors consistent with on-orbit weapons operations." 2 Right · 1A Defense Intelligence Agency report released on Monday 26 October listed similar Russian incidents over the past decade, including Cosmos 2542/2543 in 2019–2020 (the latter fired a projectile in an anti-satellite test), Cosmos 2558 in 2022, Cosmos 2576 in May 2024, Cosmos 2581–2583 in 2025 and Cosmos 2588 in May 2025. 2 Right · 1The Examiner also reports that Russia is seeking an anti-satellite capability using a new satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon, and that the DIA saw no indication China plans to test or develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. 2

Left · 1Russia's military has previously said its inspector satellites exist only for "monitoring the condition of Russian satellites". After the approach, the government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by retired colonel Yuri Knutov saying Russia's actions "do not violate international law" and that inspector satellites are "a tool of strategic deterrence". 1 Left · 1Knutov wrote that commercial firms supporting intelligence gathering against Russia must accept that their spacecraft "may be subjected to forced inspection in orbit", and said ICEYE satellites and Starlink had effectively become part of NATO's intelligence apparatus. 1 Mixed · 2Meduza places the episode in a two-sided competition: the US has operated GSSAP inspector satellites since 2014, launched Jackal and Puma in June 2026, and in September acknowledged deploying kinetic and nonkinetic weapons in space. The Examiner similarly quotes Air Force Secretary Troy Meink and Gen. Douglas Schiess confirming US on-orbit weapons. 1 2

Left · 1As of midday 21 October, Langbroek said Kosmos-2612 had stopped moving away and was holding about 480 km from its target. Hendrickx cautioned it could return if fuel allows, and that ICEYE-X36 and ICEYE-X37 could both be targets of the sister satellites. 1