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Shell expects Q3 refining margin of $42 a barrel and raises gas output outlook

Shell told investors it expects its indicative third-quarter refining margin to rise to $42 a barrel from $24, and raised its integrated gas production outlook to 740,000–780,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

2 outlets · 0L · 1C · 1R First reported Account updated
Image: City A.M.
Image: Evening Standard

1 / 2

The story, neutrally told

Mixed · 2Shell said on Wednesday 7 October that it expects an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel for the third quarter, up from $24 a barrel in the second quarter. Mixed · 2The company also raised its integrated gas production forecast for July to September to between 740,000 and 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, from a previous range of 570,000 to 630,000. Centre · 1The new range compares with 631,000 BOED produced in the second quarter of 2026, which the Evening Standard says was hit by Middle East conflict damaging output from Qatar.

Right · 1City A.M. links the gas increase to Shell's completed acquisition of Canadian shale producer ARC Resources, a $16.4bn deal announced in April. Centre · 1The Evening Standard ties the energy price swings to the continuing Iran war. Right · 1City A.M. reports that the margin gain follows G7 leaders agreeing to release 100m of emergency diesel and oil supplies with the International Energy Agency, that British diesel passed 200p a litre for the first time last week, and that oil has stayed above $100.

Right · 1Refinery utilisation is expected to fall to 93–97% from 102% in the second quarter, because low Rhine water levels after summer heatwaves forced Shell to curtail processing at its Rheinland refinery in Germany, according to City A.M. Right · 1City A.M. adds that the stronger refining result should help offset softer chemicals performance and about $2.5bn of expected cash outflows tied to German emissions certificate payments; Shell will publish full third-quarter results at the end of October.

Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.

Left0 outlets

No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.

Centre1 outlet

Framing
Short, investor-update style report leading on the upgraded gas outlook and higher refining margins, set against the Iran war.
Emphasis
Gas production guidance versus prior range and Q2 output; Iran war and Qatar disruption.
Leaves out or plays down
Does not mention refinery utilisation, Rhine disruption, emissions payments or the G7 stock release.
For example
“Shell has upgraded its outlook for gas production in the third quarter and said it expects profit margins from its refining operations to surge” — Evening Standard

Right1 outlet

Framing
Leads on a profit windfall for Shell from surging fuel prices, with wider context of the energy shock and bond market stress.
Emphasis
Margin near-doubling, operational limits at Rheinland, offsetting chemicals and emissions costs, UK diesel prices and gilt yields.
Leaves out or plays down
Does not mention the Iran war or Qatar output damage as drivers.
Charged language
“profit windfall”“bumper quarter”“smashed the 200p a litre mark”
For example
“Shell is poised to reap major gains from its refining operations” — City A.M.