Siena poll puts Hochul 54%–40% ahead of Blakeman in New York governor's race
A final pre-election Siena poll released 28 October shows Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by 14 points among likely voters, up from 9 points in September. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 points.
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The story, neutrally told
Right · 2A Siena poll released on Wednesday 28 October found Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely voters in the New York governor's race, a 14-point lead. New York PostR “The Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% in the Empire State’s gubernatorial race” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “Hochul leads the Nassau County executive 54% to 40% among likely New York voters” Read at Fox News ↗ Right · 2Her lead was 9 points (50% to 41%) in Siena's September survey, so it has widened by five points. New York PostR “Her lead grew from 9 points (50% to 41%) in last month’s Siena survey, a five-point jump.” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “The 14-point margin is five points wider than her lead in September, when she led 50% to 41%.” Read at Fox News ↗ Right · 2Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said Blakeman is "quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing." New York PostR “Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “Greenberg said in a statement” Read at Fox News ↗
Right · 2Greenberg said Republicans need to win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, and to win independents by a significant margin, to offset Democrats' roughly two-to-one enrollment advantage. The poll found Hochul and Blakeman running virtually even upstate and in the suburbs, with Hochul 11 points ahead among independents. New York PostR “Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “Republicans generally need strong margins in those regions and among independents to overcome Democrats' roughly two-to-one voter registration advantage” Read at Fox News ↗ Right · 1The New York Post reported that Blakeman had led among independents by 5 points in September, and that Hochul led 67% to 23% among likely New York City voters. It also noted that Hochul beat Republican Lee Zeldin by about 6 points in 2022, when he won independents. New York PostR “Blakeman led among independents by 5 points last month.”“In 2022, Hochul defeated GOP rival Lee Zeldin by a narrow 6 points because he won over independent voters.” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 2Hochul led among women by 23 points (59% to 36%) and among men by 6 points (50% to 44%). She led Black voters 81% to 16%, and white voters were closely divided. New York PostR “She is supported by 59% of women voters compared to 36% for Blakeman, a 23-point margin.” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “She also led among Black voters, 81% to 16%, while White voters were closely divided.” Read at Fox News ↗
Right · 2Of likely voters, 51% view Hochul favorably and 45% unfavorably, the first time a majority has viewed her favorably in five years of Siena polling. Blakeman's ratings were 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable. Fox NewsR “It marked the first time a majority of voters had viewed her favorably in Siena polling during her five years as governor.” Read at Fox News ↗ New York PostR “As for Blakeman, 39% of voters viewed him favorably and 40% unfavorably” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 2Her job approval was 51%. Fox News put the September figure at 48%, while the Post described the previous result as a split. Fox NewsR “Her job approval rating also rose to 51%, up from 48% in September.” Read at Fox News ↗ New York PostR “51% of respondents approved of the job she’s doing compared to 46% who disapproved, up from a split last month.” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 2Asked who would make New York more affordable, 35% said neither candidate, 30% said Hochul and 27% said Blakeman. Also, 68% of respondents expected Hochul to win and 23% expected Blakeman to. Fox NewsR “A plurality of voters, 35%, said neither candidate would make life more affordable, compared with 30% who chose Hochul and 27% who selected Blakeman.” Read at Fox News ↗ New York PostR “68% of respondents believed Hochul would win compared to 23% of those who predicted Blakeman would.” Read at New York Post ↗
Right · 1The Post added that 66% of voters said the US is heading in the wrong direction versus 49% who said so of New York. It said a plurality saw New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul as a positive (45% to 30%), while nearly half saw President Trump's endorsement of Blakeman as a negative and 29% as a positive. New York PostR “66% of voters said the US is heading in the wrong direction, substantially higher than the 49% who said New York is on the wrong track.”“nearly half of voters said President Trump’s endorsement of Blakmen would be a negative for the Nassau County executive’s campaign, while just 29% said it was a positive” Read at New York Post ↗ Right · 2In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%. New York PostR “Democratic incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%.” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%” Read at Fox News ↗ Right · 1The Post noted that an independent Quinnipiac poll the previous week also gave Hochul a 14-point lead (55% to 41%), though it had Blakeman ahead among independents, 51% to 44%. It said internal polls by Blakeman and GOP-leaning groups claim a tighter, single-digit race. New York PostR “Hochul also held a 14-point lead in an independent Quinnipiac University poll released last week, 55% to 41%.”“internal polls conducted by Blakeman and those done by GOP-leaning groups claim it’s a tighter single-digit race.” Read at New York Post ↗
Right · 2Siena surveyed 807 likely voters from 19 to 22 October by telephone and by text or web, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Election Day is 3 November. New York PostR “The Siena Poll was conducted from Oct. 19 – 22 among 807 likely voters.” Read at New York Post ↗ Fox NewsR “Election Day is Nov. 3.” Read at Fox News ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right2 outlets
- Framing
- Both outlets report the poll as good news for the Democratic incumbent and bad news for Blakeman, quoting Siena's Steven Greenberg that Blakeman is 'running out of time'. Neither frames the result as a Republican problem in editorial voice beyond that quote. The Post gives the fuller account, including the Trump endorsement and caveats from Blakeman's internal polling. Fox News puts voter doubt about affordability in its lede.
- Emphasis
- The Post stresses the swing among independents, the Quinnipiac comparison and internal GOP polls showing a tighter race. Fox stresses affordability doubts and Blakeman's difficulty in upstate and suburban areas.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Fox does not mention the Quinnipiac poll, the Trump and Mamdani endorsement questions, or Blakeman's internal polling. The Post does not mention that 40% of Republicans expect Hochul to win.
- Charged language
- “Democratic tsunami”“running out of time”
- For example
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“to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City” — New York Post
“New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman by 14 points in a Siena poll, but a plurality of voters say neither will make life more affordable.” — Fox News
What every side reports
- Siena's poll has Hochul ahead of Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely voters, up from 50% to 41% in September.
- The poll surveyed 807 likely voters on Oct. 19–22 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 points.
- 51% view Hochul favorably, the first majority in Siena polling during her five years as governor.
- The race is roughly even upstate and in the downstate suburbs, and Hochul leads independents by 11 points.
- 35% said neither candidate would make New York more affordable.
Where accounts differ
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Hochul's job approval in September
- Right
- Fox News says it was 48% in September; the New York Post says 51% approval is up from a split last month, without giving the earlier figure.
Kathy Hochul person
The coverage presents Hochul as the beneficiary of the poll: her lead has grown, a majority view her favorably for the first time in Siena polling, and most voters expect her to win. No direct statement from her is quoted.
“New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is heading into the final days before Election Day with the wind at her back” — New York Post
“Hochul also reached a new milestone in the survey, with 51% of likely voters viewing her favorably” — Fox News
Bruce Blakeman person
Blakeman is described as trailing and struggling among independents. The Post says his internal polling and GOP-leaning groups' polls show a tighter, single-digit race. He is not quoted directly.
“internal polls conducted by Blakeman and those done by GOP-leaning groups claim it’s a tighter single-digit race.” — New York Post
“The poll also showed Blakeman struggling to establish an advantage in areas where Republicans typically need strong support to compete statewide.” — Fox News
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre0 articles
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Right2 articles
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Hochul holds 14-point lead over Blakeman in home stretch of NY governor’s race
Neutral Detailed poll write-up that adds context from the Quinnipiac poll, 2022 results, endorsements and Blakeman's internal polling.
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Poll shows Hochul adding to lead over Blakeman in New York governor's race: 'Running out of time'
Neutral Shorter poll report focused on Hochul's widening lead, Blakeman's weakness among independents and in swing regions, and voters' affordability doubts.
- 28 Oct 09:40 First New York PostR Hochul holds 14-point lead over Blakeman in home stretch of NY governor’s race
- 28 Oct 11:58 +2h 18m Fox NewsR Poll shows Hochul adding to lead over Blakeman in New York governor's race: 'Running out of time'
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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