Deadly high-speed train crash upends Spain's snap election campaign

Mixed · 2On Wednesday 28 October, a high-speed train travelling from Madrid to Seville ran into the back of a stationary train on the same track at 8.53am, close to Toledo, south of Madrid; at least 69 people died. 1 2 Left · 1It came nine months after another crash on the same line that killed 46 people in January, according to the Guardian, and Spanish front pages called it a second high-speed catastrophe in less than a year. 3 Left · 1Spanish officials pointed to a failure involving the LZB train-control system, used on the Madrid-Seville line since the 1990s; the cause was still being questioned. Isabel Pardo de Vera, former president of the rail infrastructure manager Adif, criticised the government over the move from LZB to the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS). 1

Centre · 1At a second press appearance on Friday, Puente said the LZB, which Germany and Austria also use, was neither old nor inadequate, and that it had failed 170 times in Spain so far this year, which he called "normal" and around the EU average, according to the BBC; he said the catastrophe came when control shifted to manual and a controller told a stalled train to restart, clearing it to advance at up to 160km/h although a second train was stuck ahead. 4 Centre · 1Puente said the collision was visible on screens and audio calls in the Madrid control centre, but the advancing train was never ordered to stop; the BBC says the formal investigation has only just begun and that the PP is among those calling for his resignation, which he refused, calling it his "duty" to remain. 4 Left · 2Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the election after right-wing and far-right parties voted down the housing reforms his coalition had announced in response to protests, and his Socialist party (PSOE) had planned to campaign on housing and social policy, including a set of measures called "Social Tuesdays". 3 1

Left · 2The crash has pushed rail safety, infrastructure and the government's ability to deliver public services to the centre of the campaign, and the Guardian says it has for now subdued the usual harsh rhetoric. 1 3 Left · 2Sánchez said it was "unacceptable" to have two high-speed rail disasters in under a year and promised stronger safety measures. Transport Minister Óscar Puente rejected claims that the network is unsafe, calling it "safe and reliable" while acknowledging the limits imposed by equipment and human error. 3 1 Left · 2Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative People's Party (PP), demanded accountability and said the PP would suspend campaign activities for two days. Vox leader Santiago Abascal said he would not keep a "complicit silence" and denounced Sánchez's "criminal handling of affairs"; Vox also asked the supreme court to investigate Puente on suspicion of manslaughter and gross negligence, which Puente rejected. 1 3

Left · 1Hundreds of mostly far-right demonstrators gathered outside the Transport Ministry calling for the prime minister's resignation. 1 Left · 2The government already faced corruption allegations involving Sánchez's wife and brother, both of whom deny wrongdoing, and criticism over the mass crossing into Ceuta in the summer; Al Jazeera puts the number at 80,000. 1 3 Left · 2Polls this week, cited by Al Jazeera, put the PP at 31.5 percent, the PSOE at 26.7 percent and Vox at 19.1 percent. Analysts quoted by both outlets say the crash may hurt Sánchez: political scientist Pablo Simón said it suggests a structural decline in infrastructure that the government cannot blame on the PP's earlier austerity, and may make it hard to mobilise PSOE-leaning voters who are politically dormant. 1 3

Centre · 1The BBC reports that the January crash was at Adamuz, near Cordoba, that its investigation is still open, and that initial reports suggested a crack in the rails, which is different from the latest collision; it quotes Ipsos pollster Paco Camas saying such events destroy confidence in institutions and that Spaniards blame their government. 4 Centre · 1Simón told the BBC that a PP-Vox majority came up in almost 95% of his simulations, and that the PSOE had "totally lost control of the agenda"; far-right-led protests have taken place in Madrid and police are on stand-by this weekend for possible clashes organised online. 4 Right · 1Breitbart reports a SocioMétrica poll, published by El Español on Sunday 1 November and the pollster's first since the crash, projecting 137 seats for the PP and 64 for Vox, which with two seats from the UPN-PP alliance would total 203 against the 176 needed for a majority; the same pollster had projected 200 for those parties before the crash. 2

Right · 1The poll projects the PSOE at 106 seats, down from 121 in 2023, and the governing left coalition at 145; across SocioMétrica's simulations the PSOE has a 4 percent chance of forming a government against 96 percent for a PP-Vox coalition, though Breitbart's introduction describes the PP-Vox chance of a majority as "100 percent". 2 Right · 1Breitbart says 66 of the 69 dead had been identified by Monday morning, 54 of them Spanish and 12 foreign nationals; it also says Vox and the PP recently agreed not to compete against each other in several Senate races to reduce the chances of a PSOE-led Senate majority. 2