Speaker Johnson says midterm polls are wrong, claims they undersample Republicans
House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Fox News and at a Texas rally that polls favouring Democrats in next month's midterms undersample Republicans. Raw Story notes that reputable pollsters adjust for response bias.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said on Tuesday 13 October 2026 that polling showing Democrats ahead in next month's midterm elections is wrong. BreitbartR “According to the Louisiana Republican, the polls were “wrong.”” Read at Breitbart ↗ Raw StoryL “House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) gave his crowd in Corpus Christi, Texas, his explanation of why polls are wrong” Read at Raw Story ↗ Right · 1On Fox News Channel's "America's Newsroom", host Dana Perino asked him to respond to analysts who say the House is lost and Democrats will take the majority. BreitbartR ““I’m going to give you a shot here to respond to some political analysts who say the House is gone, that the Dems are definitely going to be in the majority,” host Dana Perino said.” Read at Breitbart ↗ Right · 1Johnson, speaking from Texas, said he had been campaigning for almost two years and expected to visit eight states that week, and said polling organisations are acknowledging that they are undersampling Republicans because Republicans no longer want to respond to polls. BreitbartR “I’m in Texas today. We will do three events here, and then I will head — I think I have got eight states this week.” Read at Breitbart ↗
Right · 1He cited a CNN story that he said acknowledged Republicans were underestimated in October polls in 14 of the last 16 elections going back to 1994. BreitbartR “CNN did a story, Dana, just this week and acknowledged that Republicans have been underestimated in October polls 14 of the last 16 elections going back to 1994,”” Read at Breitbart ↗ Right · 1Johnson said he sees "huge energy" in crowds in swing districts, that it "feels like 2024", and that this is not showing up in polls. BreitbartR “I am seeing huge energy in crowds. It feels like 2024 to me. That’s not registering in the polls, and we’re fired up.” Read at Breitbart ↗ Left · 1At a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, Johnson repeated the argument, asking the crowd how many had entered a political poll in the past six months and saying he cannot find anyone at his events who has. Raw StoryL “How many of you have entered a political poll in the last six months? Nobody.”“I can't find anyone who comes to our events who has entered a poll.” Read at Raw Story ↗
Left · 1Raw Story reported that polls have broadly shown Democrats as favourites to win the House and competitive for the Senate, and that most reputable pollsters control for response bias and unrepresentative sampling. Raw StoryL “Polls have broadly shown Democrats as favorites to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and competitive to win a majority in the Senate.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Left · 1Raw Story also said Republican-aligned groups are pulling money out of several GOP-held seats they consider lost causes. Raw StoryL “Republican-aligned groups are pulling money out of a number of GOP-held seats they consider to be lost causes.” Read at Raw Story ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Presents Johnson's remarks as a defensive, unfounded dismissal of polls, then counters with context on polling methods and GOP funding retreats.
- Emphasis
- Rally remarks, the methodological rebuttal and Republican groups withdrawing money.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the Fox News interview or Johnson's CNN statistic.
- Charged language
- “freaks out”“'fake' polling”
Centre0 outlets
No centre outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Reports Johnson's Fox News interview as an optimistic, upbeat statement of confidence, largely in his own words.
- Emphasis
- Johnson's quotes, the CNN statistic and crowd energy.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Offers no independent check of the undersampling claim or the CNN statistic, and no mention of Republican groups withdrawing funds.
- For example
-
“expressed optimism about Republican candidates in next month’s midterm election, despite polls suggesting strong outcomes for Democrats.” — Breitbart
What every side reports
- Johnson said on 13 October 2026 that polls are wrong.
- He argued that polls undersample Republicans.
- He said the energy at his events feels like 2024.
- He was in Texas on the day.
Where accounts differ
-
Whether polls undersample Republicans
- Left
- Raw Story says most reputable pollsters control for response bias and unrepresentative sampling.
- Right
- Breitbart relays Johnson's claim that pollsters acknowledge undersampling Republicans, without independent checking.
Mike Johnson person
Says polls are wrong because Republicans are undersampled, citing crowd energy, a CNN story and a 2024 comparison, and expects Republican wins.
“I’m telling you, the polling is wrong.” — Breitbart
“They are under-sampling Republicans.” — Raw Story
Left1 article
-
Mike Johnson freaks out about 'fake' polling at Texas rally: 'They are under sampling!'
Critical Mocks Johnson's polling claims and counters them with pollster methodology and GOP funding pullbacks.
Centre0 articles
No coverage yet.
Right1 article
-
Speaker Johnson: 'I'm Telling You, the Polling Is Wrong'
Sympathetic Relays Johnson's interview largely unchallenged as an expression of GOP optimism.
- 13 Oct 17:59 First BreitbartR Speaker Johnson: 'I'm Telling You, the Polling Is Wrong'
- 13 Oct 22:29 +4h 29m Raw StoryL Mike Johnson freaks out about 'fake' polling at Texas rally: 'They are under sampling!'
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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