Texas Senate race: Talarico holds narrow poll lead over Paxton as critics attack Republican nominee
Democrat James Talarico is level with or slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in polling for the Texas Senate race, while a former GOP strategist and a former Farm Bureau president attack Paxton and Fox News looks at Black and Hispanic turnout.
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The story, neutrally told
Former Republican strategist Steve Schmidt said on his show "The Warning" that Republican nominee Ken Paxton is down in polls to Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race. Raw StoryL “is currently down in polls to Democrat James Talarico” Read at Raw Story ↗ Newsweek, citing RealClearPolitics, reports Talarico led by 2.9 points at the end of September, with Talarico in the high 40s and Paxton in the mid-40s. NewsweekN “Talarico had a 2.9 point lead as of the end of September” Read at Newsweek ↗ Fox News links to a poll headline saying Talarico ties Paxton, and describes the race as competitive. Fox NewsR “POLL: TALARICO TIES PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE RACE, THREATENING GOP STRONGHOLD”“A competitive Senate race is testing whether Texas is still safely red” Read at Fox News ↗
Schmidt said Sen. Ted Cruz has said Paxton is losing and that Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat in the primary, is refusing to fundraise for him. Raw StoryL “Ted Cruz has said Ken Paxton is losing.” Read at Raw Story ↗ Bob Stallman, a former president of the Texas Farm Bureau, wrote in a Houston Chronicle op-ed that he will not vote for Paxton, citing Paxton's 2023 impeachment and alleged infidelity. NewsweekN “I will not vote to elect Ken Paxton to the U.S. Senate” Read at Newsweek ↗ Paxton denied wrongdoing and was acquitted by the Texas Senate in 2023, and denied the adultery allegation in court filings. NewsweekN “Paxton denied wrongdoing and was acquitted by the Texas Senate later that year.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Stallman also criticised Paxton for not challenging President Trump's plan to allow imported ground beef, which he said reflects Trump bailing out Paxton's campaign; Newsweek says Talarico opposed the plan. NewsweekN “It’s because the president is bailing out Paxton’s Senate campaign.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Newsweek says Talarico leads among Hispanic voters 63% to 30% in a Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision poll, and Paxton's support is concentrated among white and older Texans. NewsweekN “Talarico leading Paxton among Hispanic voters 63 percent to 30 percent” Read at Newsweek ↗ Fox News says Black and Hispanic turnout could decide whether Talarico becomes the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win statewide in Texas. Fox NewsR “Talarico is seeking to become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide race” Read at Fox News ↗
Fox also notes Talarico faces a challenge uniting Democrats after his primary win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, whose political action committee has not endorsed him. Fox NewsR “her political action committee has not endorsed Talarico or campaigned for him” Read at Fox News ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Opinion piece relaying Schmidt's commentary that Paxton is a doomed, scandal-plagued nominee and a sign of wider MAGA decline.
- Emphasis
- Paxton's controversies, Republican defections and predicted losses across states.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives no specific poll figures.
- Charged language
- “greatest freakshow of our time”“scandal-plagued”“buffoon”
- For example
-
“there's truly no one worse in the entire land running for federal office than this buffoon in Texas, Ken Paxton” — Raw Story
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Opinion-labelled report on a Republican-aligned agriculture figure's op-ed against Paxton, with polling context.
- Emphasis
- Beef policy, the Farm Bureau endorsement, Paxton's impeachment, and poll numbers.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Says Paxton's campaign and the Farm Bureau were asked for comment, with no response reported.
- Charged language
- “Lizard”“scathing op-ed”
- For example
-
“Ken Paxton has the morals of a lizard, and that is probably being unkind to lizards” — Newsweek
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Voter-focused report on whether Black and Hispanic turnout could flip a Republican-held state.
- Emphasis
- Turnout, Crockett's non-endorsement, and Democratic divisions, told through voter interviews.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not detail Paxton's scandals or give poll numbers beyond a linked headline.
- Charged language
- “GOP fortress”“GOP stronghold”
- For example
-
“Talarico faces an uphill battle in uniting Democrats behind his campaign” — Fox News
What every side reports
- Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee and James Talarico the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Texas Senate race.
- Polling shows Talarico level with or narrowly ahead of Paxton.
- Paxton has faced criticism over his record.
Where accounts differ
-
Whether Paxton is trailing or tied
- Left
- Schmidt says Paxton is down in polls and will lose.
- Centre
- Cites RealClearPolitics showing Talarico ahead by 2.9 points, narrow but consistent.
- Right
- Refers to a poll showing a tie and frames the race as competitive, dependent on turnout.
-
Paxton currently trails Talarico in Texas Senate race polling
Supported- Supports 2
- Raw Story, Newsweek
- Reports 1
- Fox News
-
Paxton is a deeply flawed or corrupt candidate
Reported- Supports 1
- Raw Story
- Reports 2
- Newsweek, Fox News
Steve Schmidt person
Says Paxton is the worst federal candidate and will lose, part of a wider MAGA collapse.
“even this guy is a bridge too far. And that's why he's going to lose.” — Raw Story
Bob Stallman person
Says Paxton is corrupt and unfit, and that he will not vote for him.
“he does not have the moral fitness to serve as a U.S. senator” — Newsweek
James Talarico person
Presents himself as a native Texan opposing foreign beef imports; Fox says he must turn out Black and Hispanic voters and unite Democrats.
“I’m an eighth-generation Texan.” — Newsweek
Ken Paxton person
Denied wrongdoing over impeachment and adultery allegations; his campaign did not have a response reported.
“Paxton denied wrongdoing and was acquitted by the Texas Senate later that year.” — Newsweek
Left1 article
-
Raw StoryL · · Opinion
Ex-GOP strategist unmasks signs 'greatest freakshow of our time' nearing its end
Critical Relays Schmidt's forecast of Paxton's defeat and adds no opposing view.
Centre2 articles
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NewsweekN · · Opinion
Texas Ranchers Shouldn't Vote for 'Lizard' Ken Paxton: Ex-Farm Bureau Chief
Critical Centres a former Farm Bureau chief's attack on Paxton with background on scandals, beef policy and polls.
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Right1 article
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GOP fortress is under threat in one key red state, and these voters could decide whether it falls
Neutral Reports on turnout among Black and Hispanic voters as decisive, using voter quotes, and notes Democratic divisions.
- 30 Sep 02:09 First Raw StoryL Ex-GOP strategist unmasks signs 'greatest freakshow of our time' nearing its end Opinion
- 30 Sep 16:09 +14h NewsweekN Texas Ranchers Shouldn't Vote for 'Lizard' Ken Paxton: Ex-Farm Bureau Chief Opinion
- 30 Sep 16:18 +14h 10m Fox NewsR GOP fortress is under threat in one key red state, and these voters could decide whether it falls
- 30 Sep 21:25 +19h 17m NewsweekN James Talarico is Outraising Ken Paxton in Texas’ Republican Strongholds
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.