US withdraws all bombers from RAF Fairford as Iran role in suspected plot stays unproven

Mixed · 2On 12 October Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Commons the incident was "highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard", the UK's firmest attribution so far; days after the incident he had spoken only of "strong indications". 1 2 Centre · 2Burnham promised to crack down on Iran's use of criminal networks and bring further sanctions, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said an unnamed known individual based in Iran was believed to be behind it. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband summoned Iran's ambassador and sanctioned Ruhollah Bazghandi, the IRGC's head of counter-espionage operations, and Shahram Ali Reza Tamarzadeh Jakki, a facilitator for the Zindashti criminal network; almost 30 countries, including the US, Canada, France and Germany, condemned Iran's "hybrid activities". 2 3 Centre · 2Iran rejects the claim: its ambassador, Seyed Ali Mousavi, said Tehran had no involvement and that Britain should present any evidence, while also saying Tehran was willing to cooperate with British authorities. 2 3

Centre · 3What happened at Fairford remains unclear: the Guardian reports experts have speculated it was a "feint" and that British sources doubt Iran could mount a sophisticated drone attack, while The National says the US gave mixed messages on whether it had direct intelligence of a drone plot or acted from caution. Detectives have said petrol but no viable explosive was found in the vans, and former deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden told Burnham that Iran "smells weakness". 1 3 2 Centre · 2On Sunday 4 October the US withdrew all its bombers from RAF Fairford; a Pentagon official said all bombers deployed there "have redeployed to their home stations in the United States", while adding that operational security had precluded confirming the movements in real time and that the US bomber force, including B-1s, B-2s and B-52s, remains ready to strike "anywhere, anytime". 4 5 Mixed · 2The Evening Standard and Washington Examiner, citing anonymous US officials quoted by the New York Times, report the move was driven by new threats against the base: one official said the information was part of the same warnings from three weeks earlier but that more specific details emerged in the past 24 hours, at least three planes had landed in South Dakota by Sunday, and some aircraft and crews left before refuelling tankers were arranged because of the urgency. Other outlets described the withdrawal as rushed. 4 6

Mixed · 2Gulf News cautioned that the Pentagon has not said the move was directly linked to the incident and that British authorities have not established the suspects were targeting the base or the aircraft; the BBC likewise noted the US gave no reason. The US had used Fairford for strikes on Iran, with 12 B-1B bombers stationed there until recently, according to the Jerusalem Post. 7 8 Mixed · 2Reaction was polarised: Raw Story, citing NBC's description of a "rushed withdrawal", framed it as a blow to a US-British military partnership dating to 1950, quoting a British journalist who called it a "damning indictment" and Republican Rep. Randy Fine, who blamed Britain's Muslim population; the Washington Examiner placed it alongside Trump's remarks that he has a "decision to make about Iran". 9 6 Left · 3On Thursday 1 October counter-terrorism police arrested a UK-Iranian dual national in Westminster, London, on suspicion of preparation of terrorist acts under section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006, in the investigation into the RAF Fairford incident; early reports gave his age as 27, but police and later coverage describe him as 25. 10 11 12

Centre · 2A second man, 26, a UK national, was questioned under caution and two properties in Westminster were searched; Vicki Evans, senior national coordinator for Counter Terrorism Policing, said the investigation is "hugely complex" and police are looking at "all possible angles – including possible foreign state involvement". 13 14 Mixed · 2On Saturday 3 October Counter Terrorism Policing confirmed the UK-Iranian man had been released on bail and that searches of the two properties had finished; it said the investigation into "the circumstances surrounding events in Gloucestershire" is continuing. 15 11 Mixed · 2The arrest follows that of five British men aged 23 to 25 from London (four lived in Westminster and one in Camden) in the early hours of Sunday 27 September in Whelford, a village east of the base, after police were alerted to "three suspicious vehicles"; they were held on suspicion of explosives offences and later terrorism offences. The base has been used by US aircraft for operations against Iran since Britain granted permission in March. 14 16

Mixed · 2About 85 homes were evacuated: About 85 households in the village of Whelford were evacuated, and bomb disposal experts examined the vans. Residents were returning home on Tuesday, and police said they hoped to close the investigative scenes by Wednesday. 17 18 Mixed · 2The five were released on bail on Monday and have not been charged; the men were bailed on Monday without charge and remain under investigation on strict conditions, which police described as an "investigative decision" "grounded in experience and strategy". Police said they remain under investigation on strict conditions, with Laurence Taylor, head of Counter Terrorism Policing, citing "stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others". 14 18 Centre · 2On Tuesday, Laurence Taylor, head of UK Counter Terrorism Policing, said the three vans had been extensively examined and no improvised explosive devices were found; a quantity of petrol was recovered. On Tuesday, Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, head of counter-terrorism policing, said no improvised explosive devices were found. The Daily Express reports it is understood the material found was not viable explosives. The vans carried the logo of a fuel delivery firm, which denied any connection to them, and this has fed speculation, not confirmed by police, that the men were fuel thieves; police have not confirmed this. 14 13

Mixed · 2Accounts of how police were alerted have shifted: Al Jazeera says the alarm was raised by a woman who found her driveway blocked, and ABC says a local farmer gave the tip-off, but on Wednesday it emerged that one of the five had dialled 999 himself, before the farmer's call; the BBC reported two early-morning calls, the first made by one of the suspects. The Times reported, without naming sources, that one suspect called emergency services before arrest; police had not commented and it cited no sources, and the Evening Standard says he reportedly dialled 999. 18 13 Left · 2The Times said police are weighing whether it was surveillance, a "dry run" to test security or a stunt to send a message, and that a possible stunt or calling card is a line of inquiry. The Express instead quotes a former counter-terrorism officer, speaking to The Telegraph, who raised the possibility of hostile reconnaissance or a "dry run"; Whitehall sources told the Daily Mail the arrests were not pre-planned, and a reconnaissance "dry run" is among lines of inquiry. 18 16 Mixed · 2Taylor said police are considering that the activity may have been by proxies or people working for a foreign state, knowingly or not; he said police are considering possible proxies working for a foreign state and later noted that "international commentary" was heightening public worry, that worry having been "heightened by the international commentary". Police have not ruled out foreign involvement. 18 17

Left · 1The BBC reported that the men were held under the Police and Criminal Evidence Act rather than the Terrorism Act, which limited how long they could be detained; the BBC's Daniel Sandford says the men were held under ordinary police powers rather than the Terrorism Act, so could not be detained for 14 days. Chris Phillips, a former head of the National Counter Terrorism Security Office, told Al Jazeera police would otherwise have 24 to 36 hours, and a legal expert told CBS that bailing suspects to see who they contact is a known tactic. 18 Mixed · 2President Trump praised the arrests, said the suspects were "looking to do big damage", said he was surprised the men were bailed and would not have done it, and said he was surprised by the bail decision. President Trump said it "might be" Iran and that he was surprised the men were released. He said the men "might be" linked to Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the case "clearly involved the hands of a foreign actor". He did not name one, naming no country and giving no evidence, though coverage pointed to Iran's threats against US interests. 18 17 Mixed · 2On Wednesday Prime Minister Andy Burnham said "there are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF Fairford" but that it is an "ongoing, complex and serious police investigation", and said the investigation was ongoing. He offered no evidence or further explanation, named no one and gave no details, said he would not say it lightly, and said bail conditions were the strictest possible; Al Jazeera said it was the first time a British official had publicly linked Iran to the events, and that Burnham gave no reason. 19 18

Mixed · 2Iran denies involvement: its London embassy "categorically rejects and strongly condemns" any link, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the UK was "barking up the wrong tree" and that the release of the suspects "really says it all", and Arab News reported Iran summoned the British ambassador. 18 20 Centre · 3Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News that Israel gave Britain intelligence of an "Iranian-sponsored attack" and "pretty much the next day they slapped sanctions on us", referring to the UK's measures on goods from illegal West Bank settlements; GB News noted it was unclear whether he meant Fairford, and the Washington Examiner noted he did not explicitly say it was the Fairford incident, while Israeli President Isaac Herzog told the BBC he agreed with Netanyahu. 13 17 19 Left · 1US Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin told Fox News on Thursday that the US knew Iran or its proxies would try an attack on a US asset in the UK and had been sharing information with British officials; he voiced frustration that the five were bailed but said the US and UK partners had "eyes on" them. 21

Left · 1Separately, on 2 October the Daily Mirror reported that two Iranian nationals arrested in Manchester were charged under the same section of the Terrorism Act over an alleged plot against the Jewish community, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said Iran often uses "proxies and criminal networks"; the report does not link that case to Fairford. 22 Left · 1Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera said bail suggested thin evidence, Al Jazeera's analysts argue that the bail decision suggests police found none, and analysts quoted by Al Jazeera say the case may be much thinner than Washington implies. One suggested heating-oil theft as a more plausible explanation, and one analyst called that the more plausible explanation; another thought the men may have been hired by a foreign state to stage an incident, another said the effort suggested a staged event paid for by a foreign state, and others argued the effort involved pointed to planning. Silke said evidence suggests "a proxy explanation", while Ashraf said bail does not mean the Iranian-involvement hypothesis was rejected. 18 Mixed · 2It remains unclear what the men were doing there, who if anyone directed them, and whether any charges will follow; what they were doing, whether anyone directed them and whether charges follow remain unknown, and whether they were innocent, unwitting or part of an interrupted plot remains open. The National noted theories range from petrol smugglers to Iran proxies. 19 18

Left · 1Other commentary raises different possibilities. 18