China confirms contact with US and Russia on possible Trump-Putin-Xi meeting at APEC

Mixed · 2A three-way summit of US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping has not been formally announced, but it could take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, on 18-19 November; Trump said on 8 November that he thinks it will happen, and Hot Air's commentary earlier said it seemed likely. 1 2 Centre · 2On 3 November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Financial Times that "work is under way on organising such a meeting", and the FT, citing people familiar with the situation in Washington, Beijing and Moscow, reported that officials were holding serious talks about a trilateral on the sidelines of the Shenzhen summit. 3 4 Centre · 1The FT report said it was unclear whether the three sides were talking together or whether Beijing was holding separate bilateral talks with Washington and Moscow, and that China had not yet decided whether to proceed. One source said Washington and Moscow were pressing China to agree. 3

Mixed · 2On 4 November, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China is in communication with "relevant parties" about a meeting of the Chinese, Russian and US leaders; Meduza called this China's first confirmation of such talks, and Bloomberg said it signalled Beijing's openness. A month earlier the ministry had said it had "no information to provide" on a trilateral, and Anadolu said Mao was responding to the Financial Times report. 2 5 Left · 1Peskov said on 3 November that the Kremlin hoped the meeting would be finalised "in the coming days", Al Jazeera reported on 6 November, still describing the meeting as only something that "could take place". 6 Mixed · 2Speaking to reporters in Florida on 8 November before flying to Washington, Trump said he will travel to China for APEC and that "one of the meetings, I think, will be with President Putin and President Xi", discussing "denuclearization" and efforts to end the war in Iran; Reuters, carried by Hindustan Times, and Breitbart both reported this. 1 7

Centre · 1On 9 November Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said he had no information to share on the trilateral meeting, and the SCMP noted that neither Beijing nor Moscow has confirmed it, though both said they had been in communication about arrangements. 8 Left · 1Meduza, citing the Wall Street Journal, reported on 10 November that the US and China disagree over format and agenda: Beijing wants a tightly scripted summit with each leader reading a prepared statement, and otherwise would prefer separate bilateral meetings, while the Trump administration wants a looser exchange. A Chinese official said Beijing would not take part in nuclear arms talks, and the report said all sides had tentatively agreed to hold the meeting. 9 Centre · 1The SCMP, citing sources, reported on 11 November that weeks of back-and-forth have gone into the agenda and protocol, that Ukraine and the Korean peninsula had largely fallen off the table, and that the focus had shifted to areas of possible consensus such as AI in nuclear command and control, a joint statement that a nuclear war cannot be won, and missile-launch notification. One source said China offered talks on nuclear transparency as a lighter alternative to arms control, and that progress was slow with scheduling a possible hurdle. 10

Centre · 1The SCMP's sources also said Japan had raised concerns about being left out and about wartime-alliance language, and China would prefer Ukraine talks be held directly between the US and Russia. 10 Centre · 2On 11 November US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the idea of a three-party summit in a phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, according to the State Department, as the SCMP reported on 12 November; The National's columnist wrote that all three governments have confirmed the meeting is being discussed. 11 12 Mixed · 2Trump also told reporters that the US is "choking off" Iran under a naval blockade and a land-border measure he called Operation Iron Gate, and told CBS he believes the US is "very close to making a deal" to end the Russia-Ukraine war that would leave a "little bit different shape Ukraine", without giving specifics. 7 1

Centre · 2Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said after Putin met US envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that no party had ruled out a meeting. Peskov said on 2 November that Putin's APEC schedule was still being prepared with no specific information on a trilateral. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that Putin himself proposed the idea, which has alarmed Ukraine and its allies. 3 4 Mixed · 2CNA reported that the Kremlin had said on 21 October the meeting, which would be a first, was "being prepared"; Meduza, citing the Wall Street Journal, said Putin proposed it to Trump in a phone call on 9 October, wanting to use it to seek a deal on ending the war on terms favourable to Russia, while Trump has said he would mainly want to discuss nuclear disarmament. 13 5 Centre · 1Trump said on 19 October he would be "open" to such a meeting, saying he would discuss nuclear weapons and denuclearization, and trade. He is due to attend APEC and meet Xi, and Xi is due in Miami for the G20 in December. 4

Centre · 1CNA noted that Xi, 73, and Trump, 80, have met twice this year, most recently in September at the White House, and that Trump last met Putin, 74, in Alaska in August 2025. 13 Centre · 1Wang Huiyao wrote in the South China Morning Post that he asked Putin at the Valdai Discussion Club whether he would be open to such a meeting, and that Putin was receptive and warmly welcomed the idea of a China-hosted meeting. He added that Trump has also expressed willingness to meet Xi and Putin. 14 Right · 1Hot Air says the prospect is causing anxiety among some European leaders, who fear that they and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be excluded from discussions on Ukraine's future. 15

Centre · 2Zelensky warned last month that the summit could become a platform to redistribute influence, saying "We really don't want this to turn into 'Yalta 2, 3, 4'" and that "Russia wants this meeting more than anyone"; Bloomberg likewise called the 1945 Yalta Conference the closest precedent, and said a meeting would mark a milestone in Russia's effort to break out of isolation and might let Xi mediate between Putin and Trump. 13 16 Mixed · 2German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he raised Ukraine with Xi in Beijing on 30 October; he told ARD that Xi said the three leaders would probably meet in Shenzhen but not to discuss Ukraine, and that the war is a European conflict in which "Europeans must sit at the table". 6 17 Mixed · 2China's Foreign Ministry said last month it would be "neither fair, reasonable nor realistic" to ask China to join trilateral nuclear disarmament talks "at this stage", and Tsinghua University's Sun Chenghao told the SCMP that the three sides' expectations are misaligned: Washington prioritises arms control, Moscow broader political engagement, and Beijing stability of major-power relations. 6 17

Mixed · 2Analysts quoted by the SCMP and Al Jazeera see Moscow as the most eager party: Zhu Junwei of the Horizon Insights Centre said it would let Russia appear an equal of the two biggest economies, and Moscow-based analyst Alexander Bratersky said that simply being at the table would make Putin "first among equals" and put Ukraine on the sidelines. Both expect limited substance, with Bratersky saying that if nothing is produced before Christmas "it will be just a photo op". 17 6 Right · 1In AP copy carried by Arab News, experts said the three leaders are unlikely to discuss anything substantive because their interests diverge, and the meeting might be mainly a photo opportunity. Sun Yun of the Stimson Center said "China wants the image but not the costs", and Danny Russel, a former US State Department official, said Putin has the most to gain and the summit would be a diplomatic coup for Russia. 2 Centre · 1The SCMP says the Iran war, which began in February, has defied Trump's early boast that it "wouldn't last very long", and that analysts see Trump, after Republicans lost both chambers of Congress in the midterms, as seeking an off-ramp; Chinese observers see Beijing as a possible neutral mediator offering a platform rather than pressuring Tehran, and say it has resisted joining trilateral arms-control talks. 8

Mixed · 2A separate SCMP piece says Trump is expected to meet Xi in Shenzhen for the third time this year, with a trade truce expiring in January; US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in a video call with Vice Premier He Lifeng, urged Beijing to implement past commitments on agricultural purchases and rare earths. 18 2 Left · 1Al Jazeera, quoting Inderjeet Parmar of City St George's, University of London, said Trump wants to present himself as "the indispensable deal-maker" after Democrats won both chambers of Congress in this week's midterm elections, and that a free-standing trilateral "risks treating those allies as secondary players"; Parmar called fears of a formal "G3" "understandable but overstated" because the three capitals' interests diverge on Ukraine, Taiwan, technology and the international economy. 6 Left · 1Nicholas Westcott of SOAS argued in The Conversation that Trump, Xi and Putin all see the EU as an obstacle and that the Yalta comparison tempts them, but that trade, technology and nationalism in smaller states mean great powers can no longer carve up the world; he said the focus should be on rallying small and medium states behind a rules-based order. 19

Centre · 1Sholto Byrnes argued in The National that fears of a Yalta-style carve-up are alarmist: the US share of world GDP is about half its 1945 level, APEC has 21 members, Chinese officials have rejected the term "spheres of influence", and the meeting may be mostly symbolic. 12 Right · 1Mark Almond, director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford, wrote in the Daily Mail that he fears a Yalta repeat: he argues Trump enters weakened after losing both chambers in the midterms, may seek a face-saving win at Ukraine's expense, and that US allies in Europe and East Asia fear a sell-out; he cites Ukraine's depleted interceptor stocks and says the US has used 80 per cent of its Thaad missiles since the Iran war began. 20 Right · 1According to Hot Air, the EU is trying to promote Finnish President Alexander Stubb as its envoy to future peace talks; the author calls this a doomed endeavour. 15

Right · 1At the EU summit in Brussels on 15 October, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz rebuffed a reported US proposal for individual EU countries to unfreeze some immobilised Russian assets, saying they "should remain frozen in Europe". Hot Air says Trump was unmoved and claims he showed disregard for EU leaders on at least seven occasions in October. 15 Centre · 1Wang acknowledges that some in the US and Europe fear a summit could restore Putin's standing or normalise the conflict without progress, and calls that risk real. He argues these fears must be weighed against the human cost of the war continuing. 14 Centre · 1Wang concedes that without Ukraine's participation a Shenzhen meeting is unlikely to end the war, but proposes it consider a ceasefire along the current line of contact, which he says Zelensky has supported, as well as protection of nuclear facilities, an end to strikes on energy infrastructure, prisoner exchanges and humanitarian access. 14

Centre · 1He also revives his proposal for a seven-party negotiating format (the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Ukraine and the EU) and a UN-monitored ceasefire with a peacekeeping force of troops from five European countries and five Brics members. 14