Trump puts himself at the centre of Republicans' midterm campaign despite low approval

Left · 2President Donald Trump is finishing the 2026 midterm campaign with a cross-country run of rallies, and he tells supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot". 1 2 Left · 1The AP reported that Trump organised even small details of the first Republican midterm convention, held in Dallas last month, and spoke on both nights. 1 Left · 1The AP also reported that political groups associated with Trump have spent at least about $277 million since Sept. 1 to help Republicans. His flagship Super PAC, MAGA Inc., had $416 million in the bank at the start of last month. Trump has also pledged "$5,000" cheques if Republicans hold Congress, an idea that would likely need lawmakers' approval. 1

Left · 1The White House says Trump is the party's best asset. Spokesperson Davis Ingle called him “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party”. The White House also points to policies beyond his personal appeal, including efforts to lower prescription drug prices, stimulate domestic manufacturing, and crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border. 1 Left · 2Trump's approval is low. An AP-NORC poll in late September found 17% of U.S. adults approved of his handling of the cost of living. A week before polling day, the Economist/YouGov tracker showed a net approval of -27, with 34% approving and 61% disapproving. The Australian ABC says this is lower than any president has recorded just before a midterm since World War II. 1 2 Left · 1A CNN/SSRS poll in mid-October found about 4 in 10 registered voters said their congressional vote would be more about opposing Trump, against about 2 in 10 who said it would be about supporting him. Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said Trump's focus on himself is “literally driving people who disagree with him to the Democratic side”. 1

Left · 2Trump has mostly rallied in reliably red states, and in battlegrounds he mostly visits conservative areas. The AP describes the aim as energising the Republican base while avoiding backlash in swing states. Trump told the Washington Examiner, “I always cater to my base”. The Australian ABC argues that rallies in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Alabama show a party that is not feeling confident. 1 2 Left · 1The AP says Trump's grip on the party may hurt Republicans in some races. He helped Ken Paxton defeat Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas primary, which made the general election against Democrat James Talarico more competitive. He also clashed with North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who retired, and Republicans now expect to lose that seat to Roy Cooper. The AP notes that a similar rally push did not stop Democrats retaking the House in 2018. 1 Left · 1The Australian ABC's analysis says Republicans appear almost certain to lose the House, where they can afford to lose only three seats. It says Democrats lead in enough Senate polls to take that chamber, though many leads are within the margin of error, and that Talarico leads Paxton in Texas polling. 2

Left · 1The same analysis argues that the working-class, Hispanic and irregular voters who helped Trump win in 2024 have not stuck with the party as the cost of living bites. It says Hispanic voters have swung back to Democrats or may stay home. Pew found Trump's 2024 voters were more diverse than in 2020 and 2016, at 20% non-white. The piece asks whether a poor result would weaken Trump's hold on his party and shift attention to 2028. 2 Left · 1Some voters still back him. Cindy Downes, a 67-year-old from Iowa, voted early for Republicans because “POTUS supports them”. LuAnn Bird, 72, of Wisconsin, said opposing Trump was one reason she is supporting Democrats. Jessica Mackler of EMILY’s List said Democrats see each Trump event “as a win”. 1