Trump says US will not attack Iran before 3 November midterms; blockade stays

Mixed · 2President Donald Trump said on Thursday 8 October, in a Truth Social post, that the United States will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections on 3 November. 1 2 Mixed · 2He said the US and Iran are having "productive discussions", and that the US blockade of Iran "will remain in full force and effect". 2 1 Mixed · 2Trump also said Iran is in "very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily", that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record numbers, and that 22 million barrels passed through the night before, with none coming from or going to Iran; he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. 3 4

Mixed · 2The post followed reports that the White House had asked the Pentagon for options on strikes that could be carried out before the midterms, and an Atlantic magazine piece saying Trump had been contemplating strikes before voters go to the polls. 2 4 Mixed · 2The Atlantic reported that the thinking was to keep the relative calm in the war until after the elections to keep the unpopular war out of the news; a Pentagon official told Axios the department's job was to be ready for strikes if the president ordered them, and White House officials said "the commander-in-chief has all options available at any time". 5 6 Centre · 1The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February; Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. 2

Mixed · 2A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June after Pakistani and Qatari mediation, but implementation has stalled over disagreements including security and navigation in the Strait; the two sides have since exchanged proposals, and Trump rejected Tehran's latest offer. 2 1 Mixed · 2Deutsche Welle reported a ceasefire in April that did not hold; at the end of September Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said last week it had received a counterproposal, and AP, carried by Arab News, said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expected Tehran to give a formal reply within days. 5 7 Right · 3The Wall Street Journal reported that a third aircraft carrier strike group would arrive by the end of November, while AP said the USS Theodore Roosevelt could arrive as early as the end of October; JNS added that Qatar's foreign ministry said mediated talks are continuing. 5 7 8

Right · 1Reuters, carried by the Straits Times, said the war and its $3 billion monthly cost have become a key campaign issue, with high gas prices and the war weighing on Republican candidates and threatening their congressional majority. 1 Mixed · 2The Guardian said the president's approval rating has hit a new low in polling this week and gas prices remain more than a dollar above pre-war levels; JNS noted that Democrats feature war-driven gas prices in campaign ads and quoted Sen. Chris Murphy on tanker traffic and insurance costs in the strait. 9 8 Right · 2AP said Trump has for weeks threatened a post-midterm escalation, and JNS said he has previously said he expects Iran to make a deal shortly after Election Day. 7 8

Left · 1Raw Story, citing earlier reports by other outlets, said Trump told reporters on 9 September that the war would end "immediately after our election", that the Wall Street Journal reported he privately views renewed bombing after the midterms as likely, that 17 Republican lawmakers and candidates have called for an end to the war, that diesel prices are up nearly 60%, and that a CNN poll found 73% of Americans disapprove of his handling of Iran. 3