Trump tours Texas for Paxton as Talarico holds narrow poll lead a week before midterm

Right · 1President Donald Trump toured Texas on Tuesday 27 October to boost the Senate campaign of state Attorney General Ken Paxton, with several stops planned. 1 Right · 1The Washington Examiner said Trump would hold a rally in Corpus Christi at 2 p.m. local time with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott as well as Paxton, then speak in Lubbock, with former football players Colt McCoy, Johnny Manziel and Danny Amendola joining his stops and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at Corpus Christi, according to the Associated Press. 2 Mixed · 2Paxton, who ousted Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, faces Democrat James Talarico, an Austin state representative, in a race one week away. 1 3

Right · 1On Truth Social, Trump wrote "Get rid of the guns, get rid of the Oil, get rid of the meat, but Transgender Mutilization of your Children and Open Borders are OK," calling Talarico "TalaFREAKO" and saying he would not win; Just the News described this as Trump suggesting a non-sequitur set of Talarico's policy positions. 1 Centre · 1Newsweek reported Trump would start with a 2 p.m. speech at the Port of Corpus Christi, then speak at 6 p.m. Central at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center alongside Paxton, at an event organised by the Republican National Committee. 3 Centre · 1Talarico was to hold his own Lubbock rally about an hour later at the Fiesta Center, less than three miles away, on his "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour, after his campaign moved it from a Texas Tech campus venue; the Lubbock County Democratic Party also promoted a protest outside the Civic Center. 3

Mixed · 2Newsweek said most polls show Talarico ahead by 2 to 5 points, including Univision/YouGov (50–45) and Emerson/Nexstar (48–46, margin of error ±3.1), while a Fox News poll had the two tied at 49 percent; Just the News said Talarico has a modest lead within the margin of error in most polls. 3 1 Centre · 1Newsweek reported Talarico outraised Paxton $64 million to $18 million in the third quarter, and that Decision Desk HQ gives Talarico a 55 percent chance of winning; Democrats have not won a Texas Senate race in nearly four decades. 3 Centre · 1Tuesday marked Trump's fourth Texas trip since Labor Day; Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser said the race "might be closer than we all expected" but still expects Paxton to win, while Democratic strategist Matt Angle said Texas "still favors Republicans." 3

Left · 1ABC News placed the Texas trip within a wider push: by its tracking Trump has made 19 stops in states he handily won and six in battlegrounds since 9 September, Vice President JD Vance is due in Texas later this week, and Trump and Vance will have visited Texas eight times since Labor Day weekend. 4 Left · 1ABC News said Democrats are campaigning on affordability and ending the Iran war while Republicans attack on taxes, culture war and transgender issues, that Trump's approval rating recently hit a record low of 33% in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, and that an early-October ReconMR poll had Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%, within the margin of error. 4 Centre · 1On policy, Paxton campaigns on border security, energy and spending restraint, while Talarico backs immigration reform with pathways to citizenship, lower housing, health and child care costs, and regulated marijuana legalisation. 3