UAE and Saudi non-oil sectors keep expanding in September PMI surveys despite Iran war
PMI surveys showed Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector at 55.3 in September, its strongest since February, and the UAE's steady at 55.3. Both remain well above the 50 growth threshold despite the Iran war.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector had its strongest improvement in business conditions since February in September, with the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.3 from 53.8 in August. Arab NewsRC “with the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 55.3 from 53.8 in August” Read at Arab News ↗ The NationalN “rose to 55.3 in September, from 53.8 in August, well above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction” Read at The National ↗ Mixed · 2The Saudi reading was driven by new orders, which rose at their fastest pace since February and moved closer to their long-run average. This suggests demand has recovered after a slowdown in the middle of 2026. Firms cited improving market conditions, more clients and higher spending. Arab NewsRC “new orders increased at their fastest pace since the second month of the year and moved closer to their long-run average” Read at Arab News ↗ The NationalN “Businesses surveyed also referred to gradual improvements in the market that led to increased client numbers and higher spending.” Read at The National ↗ Mixed · 2Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, called the acceleration "primarily demand-led". He said the result fits the wider Saudi economy, which is supported by domestic consumption, investment, and government and Public Investment Fund projects. The NationalN ““The acceleration was primarily demand-led. New orders increased at their fastest pace since February,” said Naif Alghaith” Read at The National ↗ Arab NewsRC “domestic consumption, investment activity, government and Public Investment Fund-related projects” Read at Arab News ↗
Right · 1Not all Saudi indicators were strong. Output growth slowed to a five-month low, and confidence about future output declined, which the report linked to greater geopolitical uncertainty. Foreign orders fell for a seventh consecutive month, though the decline eased, and firms blamed supply-chain disruption. Arab NewsRC “Greater geopolitical uncertainty contributed to a slower rate of activity growth in September, which eased to a five-month low”“Orders from foreign clients fell for a seventh consecutive month, although the pace of decline softened considerably.” Read at Arab News ↗ Right · 1Saudi cost pressures stayed high. Firms reported sharp rises in material and transport prices, and selling charges rose at the second-fastest rate in more than six years. Delivery times improved only marginally, at the weakest pace in five months. Arab NewsRC “selling charges still rose at a substantial pace, with the rate of inflation the second-fastest in more than six years”“delivery times improving only marginally and at the weakest pace in five months” Read at Arab News ↗ Right · 1Arab News added official data context: the General Authority for Statistics said non-oil activities grew 0.9 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026, while real GDP fell 4.7 percent. Arab NewsRC “non-oil activities grew 0.9 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026, while the Kingdom’s real gross domestic product declined 4.7 percent” Read at Arab News ↗
Centre · 1The S&P Global UAE PMI held at 55.3 in September, unchanged from August. David Owen, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said it was "another indication that the non-oil economy has moved past the midyear slowdown linked to the Middle East conflict". The NationalN “in September remained stable at 55.3 recorded in August”“another indication that the non-oil economy has moved past the midyear slowdown linked to the Middle East conflict” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1UAE output grew at its fastest rate since February, before the war began. New export business rose for a third consecutive month, at the sharpest pace since November 2024. New orders also rose, though more slowly than in August's seven-month high. The NationalN “with the fastest rate of growth since February, before the outbreak of the war”“which expanded for the third consecutive month and at the sharpest pace since November 2024” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1UAE firms raised selling prices at the steepest rate since May 2011. Owen said companies appeared to be rebuilding margins after strong input-cost pressure, and that input costs and selling charges may stay elevated while oil markets are volatile and shipping routes constrained. The NationalN “companies raised their output prices at the steepest rate since May 2011”“input costs and selling charges may remain elevated” Read at The National ↗
Centre · 1The Dubai PMI rose to 54.5 from 54.1, with output growth the fastest of 2026 so far, the strongest new business from abroad in two years, and output price inflation the fastest since January 2014. The NationalN “The Dubai PMI posted 54.5 in September, up from 54.1 in August”“the fastest since January 2014” Read at The National ↗ Mixed · 2Both outlets set the figures against the Iran war, which The National says is in its seventh month. Arab News says the US-Israeli war with Iran has affected traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The National adds that Iran continues to attack commercial vessels in Hormuz, and that Yemen's Houthi rebels have placed Saudi Red Sea ports under a "maritime blockade". The NationalN “Iran continues to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz” Read at The National ↗ Arab NewsRC “The US-Israeli war with Iran has impacted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea” Read at Arab News ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre2 outlets
- Framing
- The National covers the UAE and Saudi Arabia together, leading on resilience and recovery despite the Iran war.
- Emphasis
- UAE and Dubai figures, record selling-price rises, strong export orders, and S&P Global economist comment on margins and elevated costs.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not report the Saudi output slowdown to a five-month low, the fall in business confidence, or the Q2 GDP contraction.
- Charged language
- “shook off”“strong growth trajectory”
- For example
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“as the Arab world’s two largest economies shook off the effects of” — The National
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Arab News covers only Saudi Arabia, leading on the PMI reaching its highest since February while noting regional tensions and the weaker headline economy.
- Emphasis
- Saudi detail: slower activity growth, lower business confidence, cost pressures, and the Q2 non-oil growth of 0.9 percent against a 4.7 percent GDP decline.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not cover the UAE or Dubai PMIs. Does not mention Houthi blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports.
- Charged language
- “US-Israeli war with Iran”
- For example
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“Despite the uncertainty, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy continued to expand while overall output weakened.” — Arab News
What every side reports
- Saudi Arabia's Riyad Bank PMI rose to 55.3 in September from 53.8 in August, its strongest since February.
- Saudi new orders rose at their fastest pace since February.
- Saudi foreign orders fell for a seventh consecutive month, with supply-chain disruption cited.
- Riyad Bank's chief economist Naif Al-Ghaith said Saudi non-oil activity is supported by domestic consumption, investment and government and PIF projects.
S&P Global organisation
S&P Global compiles the PMIs. Its economist David Owen says the UAE has moved past the midyear slowdown but warns that costs and selling prices may stay elevated.
“another indication that the non-oil economy has moved past the midyear slowdown linked to the Middle East conflict” — The National
Saudi Arabia place
Saudi non-oil business conditions improved on domestic demand, though export orders, output growth and confidence were weaker.
“Orders from foreign clients fell for a seventh consecutive month” — Arab News
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre2 articles
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Non-oil sectors in UAE and Saudi Arabia maintain strong growth trajectory despite Iran war
Celebratory Presents the Gulf's two largest economies as resilient and recovering, with detailed UAE and Dubai data and some caveats on prices and exports.
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Right1 article
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Saudi non-oil PMI rises to 55.3, highest since February
Mixed Reports the Saudi PMI rise while stressing slowing output, falling confidence, cost pressures and the contrast with a contracting GDP.
- 5 Oct 08:56 First The NationalN Non-oil sectors in UAE and Saudi Arabia maintain strong growth trajectory despite Iran war
- 5 Oct 09:32 +36m Arab NewsRC Saudi non-oil PMI rises to 55.3, highest since February
- 5 Oct 09:46 +51m Gulf NewsN UAE non-oil economy holds strong as PMI stays at 20-month high
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.