UK on course to miss 0.3% aid target by about £400m in 2027, CGD estimates

Left · 2The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid in 2027 by an estimated £400m, according to calculations by the think tank Center for Global Development (CGD). 1 2 Left · 2The CGD says the central forecast from the Treasury's comparison of independent forecasts implies a £410m shortfall, leaving aid at 0.29% of national income. It calls a £580m shortfall (0.28%) "very plausible", and its most conservative forecast still implies a £250m gap. 1 2 Left · 2Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, called these "material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid". He said that even £400m would be enough to halve cuts to Africa that are likely to cost thousands of lives and mean the UK's de facto exit from the south and east of the continent. 1 2

Left · 2The Guardian reports that the CGD attributes the shortfall to higher-than-expected inflation, which raises national income above the spending review forecast, and to a 2025 policy change affecting the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) budget. The Independent reports that the CGD attributes it to higher forecasts for nominal national income, driven partly by inflation and rising energy prices after the conflict in Iran. 1 2 Left · 1Because aid is calculated as a share of gross national income, a higher income forecast means the government must spend more in cash terms to meet 0.3%. 2 Left · 2The CGD urges ministers to consider allocating additional aid funds in this week's Budget, with the Independent adding that it wants the new foreign secretary and international development minister to resist any artificial delay to aid spending. The Independent says the chancellor, John Healey, is due to set out the Budget on Wednesday amid speculation about tax rises or spending cuts. 1 2

Left · 2The 0.3% target for 2027 is far below the 0.7% promised in Labour's election manifesto. It stems from a decision announced in February 2025 under Keir Starmer to cut aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income to fund higher defence spending, which is expected to free up £6.5bn for defence in 2027-28. It would be the lowest share since 1999. 1 2 Left · 1Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she would like cuts reversed in time but that "at the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set", warning that falling short means cuts to clean water, girls' schooling, vaccines and peace programmes. 1 Left · 2An FCDO spokesperson said its multi-year aid allocations, published in March 2026, set spending plans for the next three financial years based on gross national income at the 2025 spending review, and that moving to a fixed budget "reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability". 1 2

Left · 2On context, the Guardian says FCDO figures from September showed a 6.7% fall (£118m) in funding to the least-developed and low-income countries, and that UK aid fell to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025 from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987m. It adds that the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9bn a year to £1bn. The Independent notes that other major donors, including the US, France, Germany and Japan, are also reducing aid. 1 2