Ukraine faces shortage of combat-ready troops despite drone advances, four years into war

Mixed · 2Ukraine has a shortage of combat-ready troops that has persisted since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, and commanders and analysts say the need is becoming more acute as the war enters its fifth year. 1 2 Left · 1According to the Associated Press report, there are not enough forces to fully exploit the battlefield advantages gained from drone innovations. 1 Left · 1A deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion near Pokrovsk, identified only as "Afer", said his unit is at about half strength while its area of responsibility has doubled. He said some troops have spent up to a year at the front with little rotation, and that at least twice as many men are needed just to hold current positions. 1

Left · 1Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute said the shortage means units cannot be rotated often enough, leading to exhaustion and higher casualties, and that the front line will essentially stay the same. 1 Left · 1Draft dodging and desertion hamper efforts to build reserves. In March, former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said about 2 million Ukrainian men were evading service and about 200,000 soldiers had deserted or left their units without authorization; desertion carries up to 12 years in prison. 1 Left · 1The recruitment pool is limited: there are about 6.8 million men aged 25-59 by U.N. figures, including wounded veterans and others unable to serve, and official figures put military strength at about 1 million, with only a small fraction at the front. Compulsory service applies only to men, and over 70,000 women were serving as of January 2025. 1

Left · 1The Defense Ministry, shaken up by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July, is trying reforms to mobilization, training and army organization. Fedorov was replaced by Yevhenii Khmara, who says he wants to continue efforts to build fewer but stronger units, and in June Fedorov introduced contract reforms offering higher salaries and fixed terms of service. 1 Left · 1The ministry did not respond to AP's requests for comment, but an anonymous official said "There just are not enough people" and that a new mobilization policy, including encouraging deserters to return, is among the most sensitive issues. Lawmaker Yehor Cherniev said parliament has yet to see mobilization initiatives. 1 Left · 1Some Ukrainian analysts see the problem differently: Taras Chmut, who heads the charity Come Back Alive, said the issue is less a shortage of personnel than how they are managed and deployed, while Pavlo Narozhnyi said manpower is not insurmountable for simply holding the line. 1

Left · 1Ukraine can conduct limited offensives and has retaken territory near Lyman. According to figures cited by Zelenskyy, Russia has occupied about 990 square kilometers since the start of 2026 while Ukraine has retaken about 820; Russia also struggles to fill its ranks, and Putin has said about 700,000 Russian men are fighting in Ukraine. 1