UN Security Council still undecided on Guterres's successor; Grynspan leads fifth straw poll
With under three months left in António Guterres's term, the Security Council's fifth secret straw poll again put Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan in front, but with slightly weaker support and no consensus candidate.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2The UN Security Council held its fifth secret straw poll on 7 October in the race to succeed Secretary General António Guterres, and two sources close to the process told Reuters that former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan came out in front. The Straits TimesRC “An informal poll by the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the frontrunner” Read at The Straits Times ↗ The NationalN “The Security Council is expected to conduct a fifth secret straw poll on Wednesday morning.” Read at The National ↗ Right · 1Reuters reported that Grynspan leads a field of seven contenders but that her support weakened slightly compared with the previous week's poll, which it said suggests continuing gridlock and may prompt other senior figures to enter the race. The Straits TimesRC “Although Grynspan is still leading the pack of seven contenders, the support for her weakened slightly compared to the poll last week” Read at The Straits Times ↗ Centre · 1In the fourth poll she had 10 'encourage' votes, three 'discourage' votes and two 'no opinions', according to The National. The NationalN “led the fourth straw poll last month with 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two “no opinions"” Read at The National ↗
Centre · 1A candidate needs at least nine votes in the 15-member Council and must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members. The Council has not moved to a colour-coded ballot, which would show whether a permanent member voted against a candidate. The NationalN “A candidate needs at least nine votes in the 15-member Council and must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members.”“The Council has not yet moved to a colour-coded ballot” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1Under the UN Charter the General Assembly appoints the Secretary General on the Council's recommendation, but the Charter does not say what happens if the Council cannot agree. The NationalN “the General Assembly appoints the Secretary General on the recommendation of the Security Council. But the Charter does not state what happens if the Council fails to agree” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1Analysts quoted by The National said the outcome is uncertain. Ben Cohen of the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies said Grynspan is unlikely to be Washington's first choice but could emerge as a compromise. Esther Brimmer, a former US assistant secretary of state, said a new candidate may emerge. Some diplomats raised the possibility of a business-world candidate backed by the US, and names such as Nickolay Mladenov and Lana Nusseibeh have been floated unofficially. The NationalN “Ms Grynspan was unlikely to be Washington’s first choice. But she could emerge as a compromise candidate”“other names have been unofficially suggested as possible candidates, including” Read at The National ↗
Centre · 1Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group said he expects a last-minute compromise among the permanent members rather than an empty chair on 1 January, though he said 'a car crash is possible'. He listed fallback options: the General Assembly acting without a Council recommendation, as in 1950 when it extended Trygve Lie's term, or a group of senior UN officials overseeing the organisation. The NationalN “So I think a last-minute compromise is still more likely than an empty chair.””“The General Assembly extended Mr Lie's term by three years on its own, without a Council recommendation.” Read at The National ↗ Centre · 1The National noted that in 81 years the UN has never been led by a woman, and that past selections went close to the wire: in 1981 the Council settled on Javier Perez de Cuellar in mid-December, and in 1996 it recommended Kofi Annan in mid-December. The NationalN “In its 81-year history, the UN has never been led by a woman”“Ghana’s Kofi Annan was recommended in mid-December and appointed days later.” Read at The National ↗ Right · 1Reuters said the winner will face crises including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, reduced American contributions, and declining UN relevance as Washington has withdrawn from many UN agencies. The Straits TimesRC “cutbacks in American contributions, and the UN's declining political relevance as Washington has pulled out of many of its agencies” Read at The Straits Times ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left0 outlets
No left outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Explainer on the risk of deadlock: what happens if the Council cannot agree, using expert voices and historical precedents.
- Emphasis
- Veto rules, possible dark-horse or business-world candidates, the 1950, 1981 and 1996 precedents, a first woman in the post.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not report the result of the fifth poll, since it was written beforehand.
- Charged language
- “car crash”“dark horse”
- For example
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“the rules offer little guidance on what happens if the panel cannot agree on an applicant” — The National
Right1 outlet
- Framing
- Short Reuters wire report on the poll result: Grynspan ahead but slipping, with gridlock continuing.
- Emphasis
- Frontrunner status, slightly weaker support, the crises facing the next chief.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives no vote counts, no veto mechanics and no fallback scenarios.
- Charged language
- “gridlock”
- For example
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“suggesting ongoing gridlock, a result that may prompt other senior figures to join the race” — The Straits Times
What every side reports
- Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica is the leading candidate to succeed Guterres.
- The Security Council held its fifth secret straw poll on 7 October without a decisive winner.
- No candidate has overwhelming backing from the 15-member Council.
Rebeca Grynspan person
Leading candidate in the polls; reported as frontrunner with slightly weakened support, and described by one analyst as possibly a compromise choice though unlikely to be Washington's first pick.
“placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the frontrunner” — The Straits Times
“she remains short of a clear consensus” — The National
United Nations Security Council organisation
Holding successive secret straw polls without a consensus pick; has not moved to colour-coded ballots that would reveal vetoes.
“The Council has not yet moved to a colour-coded ballot” — The National
António Guterres person
Term ends in under three months; analyst Richard Gowan says he is not expected to want to stay on, and Washington appears opposed to an extension.
“I don't think Guterres wants to stay on even one more day” — The National
Left0 articles
No coverage yet.
Centre1 article
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What happens if the UN cannot agree on Antonio Guterres’s successor?
Neutral Explanatory piece weighing deadlock scenarios with expert commentary and historical precedent.
Right1 article
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The Straits TimesRC · · via Reuters
Costa Rica's Grynspan ahead in race to be next UN chief, sources say
Neutral Brief Reuters wire report, carried by the Straits Times, on the poll result and continuing gridlock.
- 6 Oct 20:22 First The NationalN What happens if the UN cannot agree on Antonio Guterres’s successor?
- 7 Oct 16:39 +20h 17m The Straits TimesRC Costa Rica's Grynspan ahead in race to be next UN chief, sources say via Reuters
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.