Other Mommy tipped for $20M US opening; The Social Reckoning projected at $7-8M
Ahead of the 9-11 October weekend, Deadline and Variety project Universal's horror film Other Mommy to top the US box office with about $20M, while Sony's The Social Reckoning is expected to open far lower.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2Deadline and Variety both project that Other Mommy, a Jessica Chastain horror film directed by Rob Savage, will take first place at the North American box office this weekend with an opening of about $20 million or more from 3,200 theatres. DeadlineN “is eyeing a No. 1 debut around $20M at 3,200 sites, which would be solid” Read at Deadline ↗ VarietyLC ““Other Mommy” will preside over box office charts with $20 million or more from 3,200 North American theaters.” Read at Variety ↗ Mixed · 2Both outlets call that a solid start given the film's cost: Deadline puts its net budget at $19 million, while Variety says it was made for $18 million. DeadlineN “the net $19M R-rated Jessica Chastain leading” Read at Deadline ↗ VarietyLC “It’s a solid start considering the movie was made for just $18 million.” Read at Variety ↗ Mixed · 2Deadline notes that Other Mommy comes from Blumhouse, Atomic Monster and Universal, has premium large-format screens, and had no Rotten Tomatoes critics score yet. It says the best audiences are women under 25 and men over 25, running ahead of The End of Oak Street at the same point before its $21 million opening. Variety says James Wan produced the film. DeadlineN “Pic has the added advantage of PLFs. No Rotten Tomatoes critics score yet.”“both demos ahead of The End of Oak Street at the same point in time ($21M opening)” Read at Deadline ↗ VarietyLC “Produced by James Wan and directed by Rob Savage” Read at Variety ↗
Mixed · 2Sony's The Social Reckoning, written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, is expected to open far lower. Variety reports a target of $7 million to $8 million in North America, and Deadline forecasts a mid-single-digit debut at 2,200 theatres, perhaps near the $8 million of Tom Cruise's Digger. VarietyLC “is targeting a debut of $7 million to $8 million in North America” Read at Variety ↗ DeadlineN “mid-single digit opening at 2,200 theaters for Social Reckoning, perhaps around where the $8M where Tom Cruise $160M Digger flopped” Read at Deadline ↗ Mixed · 2The film is a follow-up to 2010's The Social Network, with Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg. Mikey Madison plays a Facebook whistleblower who leaks internal documents to a Wall Street Journal reporter played by Jeremy Allen White. Variety says David Fincher and Jesse Eisenberg did not return and that Sony calls the film a "companion piece" rather than a sequel. Deadline names the whistleblower as Frances Haugen. VarietyLC “Sony has tried to distance the association between the two films by calling the second a “companion piece” rather than a sequel.” Read at Variety ↗ DeadlineN “follows Jeremy Strong (not Jesse Eisenberg) as Facebook architect Mark Zuckerberg” Read at Deadline ↗ Mixed · 2The original opened to $22 million about 16 years ago, according to Variety, and grossed $224 million worldwide. Deadline says it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, against 64% so far for the new film. Variety describes reviews of the new film as mixed. VarietyLC “opened almost exactly 16 years ago to $22 million, not adjusted for inflation”“Reviews have been mixed” Read at Variety ↗ DeadlineN “Critics are so-so right now on it at 64% fresh well below Social Network‘s 96% certified fresh.” Read at Deadline ↗
Mixed · 2Both outlets say the production cost limits the downside: Variety puts it at a modest $30 million, and Deadline at $30M-$42M net before marketing, with Alcon co-financing. Variety adds that adult dramas have struggled to draw crowds since COVID. Deadline says the film faces competition from NEON's OpenAI drama Artificial, which opens on Christmas Day. VarietyLC “Since Sony spent a modest $30 million to produce “The Social Reckoning,” it won’t be a disaster”“adult dramas have struggled to draw crowds in post-COVID years” Read at Variety ↗ DeadlineN “at a net production cost between $30M-$42M, before global P&A” Read at Deadline ↗ Mixed · 2Among holdovers, Amazon MGM's Verity is expected to fall in its second weekend. Deadline forecasts a drop of at least 60% to about $12 million, after a C+ CinemaScore, and Variety forecasts a 50% to 60% drop to $13 million to $16 million. The two outlets differ on its domestic total, which is $37.9 million through Tuesday in Deadline and $34 million in Variety. DeadlineN “should decline at least -60% potentially more off its C+ CinemaScore for around $12M”“currently counts $37.9M at the domestic B.O. through Tuesday” Read at Deadline ↗ VarietyLC “could decline by 50% to 60% from its debut, putting ticket sales around $13 million to $16 million” Read at Variety ↗ Left · 1Variety says Digger is on course for a second-weekend gross of about $4 million, a 50% drop from its $8 million start. It describes the film as shaping up to be a historic bomb on a budget above $160 million, and notes that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is returning to Imax and 70mm screens. Deadline also cites Digger as a flop. VarietyLC ““Digger” looks to add $4 million in its second weekend, a 50% drop from its terrible $8 million start.”“it’s shaping up to be a historic box office bomb” Read at Variety ↗
Centre · 1Other openings include Angel Studios' western Angel and the Badman at 2,000 theatres and a Fathom re-release of Pan's Labyrinth at 1,008 sites. NEON's Palme d'Or winner Fjord opens in four theatres. Deadline attributes the lack of a big tentpole to baseball playoffs and the NFL competing for audiences. DeadlineN “Angel and the Badman starring Tommy Lee Jones, Neal McDonough and Zachary Levi at 2,000 theaters”“With potential MLB playoff games this weekend in addition to NFL in full swing”“NEON has their Cannes Palme d’Or winner Fjord going in four LA and NYC theaters this weekend.” Read at Deadline ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- Variety frames the weekend as a seasonal contrast between two villains, then looks at the industry's hope of reviving theatre attendance after a weak October last year.
- Emphasis
- Industry context: Digger's flop, adult dramas' struggles, upcoming October releases, and Sony's "companion piece" positioning. Includes a Variety critic's review quote.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention the sports competition, Artificial, or audience demographics for Other Mommy.
- Charged language
- “autocratic tech bro”“historic box office bomb”“D.O.A.”
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Deadline presents a trade-style preview with detailed projections, built around sports competition and the studios' choice of lower-budget films aimed at specific demographics.
- Emphasis
- Audience demographics, tracking, marketing numbers, Chastain's horror box-office history, the Rotten Tomatoes score, and how NEON's Artificial may overshadow The Social Reckoning.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Does not mention Sony's "companion piece" positioning or Variety's wider October release slate.
- Charged language
- “Won’t Have Many Friends”“crater”“flopped”
Right0 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- Other Mommy is projected to open at about $20 million or more from 3,200 North American theatres.
- The Social Reckoning is projected to open far below The Social Network's $22 million, in single-digit millions.
- Verity is expected to drop 50-60% or more in its second weekend.
- Digger opened to about $8 million and is considered a flop.
Where accounts differ
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Budgets and totals
- Left
- Variety gives Other Mommy an $18M cost, The Social Reckoning $30M, a Verity total of $34M and a Verity weekend of $13M-$16M.
- Centre
- Deadline gives Other Mommy a $19M net cost, The Social Reckoning $30M-$42M net, a Verity total of $37.9M and a Verity weekend of about $12M.
The Social Reckoning other
Sony's film is positioned as a "companion piece" to The Social Network, with a modest budget that limits the risk. Deadline expects hopes to rest on European word of mouth.
“calling the second a “companion piece” rather than a sequel” — Variety
“the hope is that The Social Reckoning gets sophisticated audiences’ word of mouth in Europe” — Deadline
Left1 article
-
Mixed Light, punning preview that places both openings in the context of a struggling box office and calls Digger a bomb.

Centre1 article
-
Mixed Data-heavy trade preview that is upbeat on Other Mommy and sceptical of The Social Reckoning, which it sets against NEON's Artificial.

Right0 articles
No coverage yet.
- 7 Oct 21:10 First DeadlineN ‘Other Mommy’ To Cook Up $20M Opening, ‘Social Reckoning’ Won’t Have Many Friends – U.S. Box Office Preview
- 7 Oct 21:32 +21m VarietyLC Box Office: ‘The Social Reckoning’ Targets $7 Million Opening Weekend, ‘Other Mommy’ to Scare Up $20 Million-Plus Debut
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.