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Other Mommy tipped for $20M US opening; The Social Reckoning projected at $7-8M

Ahead of the 9-11 October weekend, Deadline and Variety project Universal's horror film Other Mommy to top the US box office with about $20M, while Sony's The Social Reckoning is expected to open far lower.

2 outlets · 1L · 1C · 0R First reported Account updated
Image: Deadline
Image: Variety

1 / 2

The story, neutrally told

Mixed · 2Deadline and Variety both project that Other Mommy, a Jessica Chastain horror film directed by Rob Savage, will take first place at the North American box office this weekend with an opening of about $20 million or more from 3,200 theatres. Mixed · 2Both outlets call that a solid start given the film's cost: Deadline puts its net budget at $19 million, while Variety says it was made for $18 million. Mixed · 2Deadline notes that Other Mommy comes from Blumhouse, Atomic Monster and Universal, has premium large-format screens, and had no Rotten Tomatoes critics score yet. It says the best audiences are women under 25 and men over 25, running ahead of The End of Oak Street at the same point before its $21 million opening. Variety says James Wan produced the film.

Mixed · 2Sony's The Social Reckoning, written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, is expected to open far lower. Variety reports a target of $7 million to $8 million in North America, and Deadline forecasts a mid-single-digit debut at 2,200 theatres, perhaps near the $8 million of Tom Cruise's Digger. Mixed · 2The film is a follow-up to 2010's The Social Network, with Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg. Mikey Madison plays a Facebook whistleblower who leaks internal documents to a Wall Street Journal reporter played by Jeremy Allen White. Variety says David Fincher and Jesse Eisenberg did not return and that Sony calls the film a "companion piece" rather than a sequel. Deadline names the whistleblower as Frances Haugen. Mixed · 2The original opened to $22 million about 16 years ago, according to Variety, and grossed $224 million worldwide. Deadline says it has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, against 64% so far for the new film. Variety describes reviews of the new film as mixed.

Mixed · 2Both outlets say the production cost limits the downside: Variety puts it at a modest $30 million, and Deadline at $30M-$42M net before marketing, with Alcon co-financing. Variety adds that adult dramas have struggled to draw crowds since COVID. Deadline says the film faces competition from NEON's OpenAI drama Artificial, which opens on Christmas Day. Mixed · 2Among holdovers, Amazon MGM's Verity is expected to fall in its second weekend. Deadline forecasts a drop of at least 60% to about $12 million, after a C+ CinemaScore, and Variety forecasts a 50% to 60% drop to $13 million to $16 million. The two outlets differ on its domestic total, which is $37.9 million through Tuesday in Deadline and $34 million in Variety. Left · 1Variety says Digger is on course for a second-weekend gross of about $4 million, a 50% drop from its $8 million start. It describes the film as shaping up to be a historic bomb on a budget above $160 million, and notes that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is returning to Imax and 70mm screens. Deadline also cites Digger as a flop.

Centre · 1Other openings include Angel Studios' western Angel and the Badman at 2,000 theatres and a Fathom re-release of Pan's Labyrinth at 1,008 sites. NEON's Palme d'Or winner Fjord opens in four theatres. Deadline attributes the lack of a big tentpole to baseball playoffs and the NFL competing for audiences.

Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.

Left1 outlet

Framing
Variety frames the weekend as a seasonal contrast between two villains, then looks at the industry's hope of reviving theatre attendance after a weak October last year.
Emphasis
Industry context: Digger's flop, adult dramas' struggles, upcoming October releases, and Sony's "companion piece" positioning. Includes a Variety critic's review quote.
Leaves out or plays down
Does not mention the sports competition, Artificial, or audience demographics for Other Mommy.
Charged language
“autocratic tech bro”“historic box office bomb”“D.O.A.”
For example
“two very different villains: an autocratic tech bro and a double-jointed doppelgänger from hell” — Variety
“Since “Digger” was D.O.A.” — Variety

Centre1 outlet

Framing
Deadline presents a trade-style preview with detailed projections, built around sports competition and the studios' choice of lower-budget films aimed at specific demographics.
Emphasis
Audience demographics, tracking, marketing numbers, Chastain's horror box-office history, the Rotten Tomatoes score, and how NEON's Artificial may overshadow The Social Reckoning.
Leaves out or plays down
Does not mention Sony's "companion piece" positioning or Variety's wider October release slate.
Charged language
“Won’t Have Many Friends”“crater”“flopped”
For example
“watch a film crater as men flee to sports” — Deadline
“Artificial is looking like as the more prescient themed film over the look in the rear view mirror” — Deadline

Right0 outlets

No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.