US October inflation report: prices rose 0.4%, above forecasts, in first data since midterms
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' October consumer price report, the first since the midterm elections, was previewed as showing steady or slower inflation. Newsweek later reported prices rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% consensus.
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The story, neutrally told
Mixed · 2The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its October consumer price report on Tuesday 10 November, the first nationwide snapshot of prices since the midterm elections. ABC NewsLC “A government inflation report on Tuesday will provide the first snapshot of prices nationwide since the midterm elections” Read at ABC News ↗ NewsweekN “Tuesday’s report was the first comprehensive look at consumer prices since the midterms” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1According to Newsweek, consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, against a consensus forecast of 0.3%, after a fuel-driven 0.6% gain in September. NewsweekN “consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October. Ahead of the release, the consensus among analysts had been only a 0.3 percent increase”“The latest report follows a fuel-driven 0.6 percent gain in September.” Read at Newsweek ↗ Centre · 1Newsweek reported that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 0.3% in October, in line with September but slightly above the 0.2% forecast. NewsweekN “Stripping out food and energy, core inflation hit 0.3 percent in October, in line with September but slightly faster than the 0.2 percent forecasts.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Left · 1ABC News, in a preview published before the release, said economists expected inflation to have slowed on a monthly basis in October. ABC NewsLC “Economists expect inflation to have slowed on a monthly basis in October” Read at ABC News ↗ Mixed · 2The report has no 12-month inflation rate, which usually draws close scrutiny. Both outlets say it cannot be calculated because the October 2025 data were not gathered during the government shutdown. ABC NewsLC “cannot be calculated because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not publish an inflation report last October amid the government shutdown” Read at ABC News ↗ NewsweekN “The government shutdown which took place last year interrupted the agency’s data gathering efforts” Read at Newsweek ↗ Left · 1The latest annual figure is 3.7% for the year to September, up from 3.4% in August and more than a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, according to ABC News. ABC NewsLC “Prices increased 3.7% over the year ending in September, the most recent month on record. In August, annual inflation was 3.4%.” Read at ABC News ↗
Left · 1ABC News said the Iran war pushed up gasoline prices and sent inflation to a three-year high in the spring. Gas prices rose more than 9% in September from August and accounted for more than half of that month's overall price increase, according to the BLS. ABC NewsLC “The Iran war drove up gasoline prices and catapulted inflation to a three-year high in the spring.”“Gas prices jumped more than 9% in September from August, accounting for more than half of the overall price increase last month” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1Oil prices have cooled since the election, and the national average gasoline price was below $4 a gallon on Monday, according to GasBuddy. ABC News noted this relief will not show in the October data. ABC NewsLC “leaving the national average price of a gallon of gas below $4 as of Monday, GasBuddy data showed” Read at ABC News ↗ Mixed · 2The election result is part of the context. ABC News said Democrats won a landslide in part because of discontent over rising costs, and Newsweek said they won both the House and Senate largely because of inflation concerns. ABC NewsLC “Democrats achieved a landslide victory due in part to discontent on rising costs” Read at ABC News ↗ NewsweekN “Democrats won both the House and Senate in large part due to inflationary concerns and the rising cost of living” Read at Newsweek ↗
Mixed · 2The data matter for the Federal Reserve, which raised rates a quarter point in September and then held them steady at its latest meeting before the election. Chair Kevin Warsh said then, "It’s our responsibility to get inflation down." ABC NewsLC “"It’s our responsibility to get inflation down," Warsh said at a press conference in Washington, D.C.” Read at ABC News ↗ NewsweekN “The central bank kept interest rates steady in late October following a quarter-basis-point hike in September” Read at Newsweek ↗ Left · 1ABC News said CME Group's FedWatch Tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December meeting at about 82%. That would be the second hike in four months, after three years without a rise. ABC NewsLC “The odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting are pegged at about 82%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool” Read at ABC News ↗ Mixed · 2Both outlets say the October jobs report was stronger than expected, with 165,000 jobs added. ABC News compared that with an average of 48,000 a month over the previous year, and Newsweek with a consensus forecast of 65,000. ABC NewsLC “Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, well above an average of 48,000 jobs added each month over the previous year” Read at ABC News ↗ NewsweekN “the economy added 165,000 in October compared to consensus forecasts of only 65,000” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1Newsweek quoted Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, who said the Fed would need evidence of broader disinflation before reconsidering its stance. Newsweek described the story as still developing. NewsweekN “the Fed will need evidence of broader disinflation before reconsidering its policy stance”“This is a developing story; more to follow.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left3 outlets
- Framing
- A preview written before the release, setting out the economic and political backdrop: the Iran war's effect on gasoline prices, the Democrats' midterm win and the Fed's rate decision.
- Emphasis
- Gasoline prices, the annual inflation trend, Fed rate-hike odds (about 82% for December) and the missing year-over-year figure.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Contains no actual October figures, as it was written before the release.
- Charged language
- “landslide victory”“catapulted inflation to a three-year high”
Centre2 outlets
- Framing
- A news report on the released data, led by the October figures coming in hotter than forecast and tied to the affordability-focused election.
- Emphasis
- Headline 0.4% rise against the 0.3% forecast, core inflation, the missing annual rate and an analyst's view of the Fed outlook.
- Leaves out or plays down
- Gives no annual inflation level or Fed rate-hike probabilities. It says little about the Iran war's effect on fuel prices.
- Charged language
- “affordability-focused election”
Right2 outlets
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- The October CPI report is the first nationwide price data since the midterm elections.
- No 12-month inflation rate could be calculated because of last year's shutdown gap in data.
- The Fed raised rates a quarter point in September and held them steady at its next meeting.
- October jobs growth was 165,000, above expectations.
Where accounts differ
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Whether October inflation was cooler or hotter than expected
- Left
- ABC News, in a pre-release preview, said economists expected inflation to have slowed on a monthly basis.
- Centre
- Newsweek, reporting the released data, said prices rose 0.4%, faster than the 0.3% consensus, and described this as a smaller slowdown than anticipated.
Left3 articles
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Inflation report to provide 1st snapshot of prices since midterm elections
Neutral Explanatory preview of the report that places October's expected slowdown in the context of the Iran war, Fed policy and the midterm result.
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Centre2 articles
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Inflation Report Finds Prices Rose Faster Than Expected Before Midterms
Neutral Quick report on the release that stresses prices beating forecasts and what that means for the Fed and the election's affordability theme.
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- 10 Nov 10:07 First ABC NewsLC Inflation report to provide 1st snapshot of prices since midterm elections
- 10 Nov 13:32 +3h 26m NBC NewsLC Inflation posts slowest rise in three months as gas prices drop
- 10 Nov 13:40 +3h 33m Washington ExaminerR Prices posted sharp 0.4% increase in October, showing inflation threat
- 10 Nov 13:41 +3h 34m NewsweekN Inflation Report Finds Prices Rose Faster Than Expected Before Midterms
- 10 Nov 13:50 +3h 43m CBS NewsLC Inflation remained elevated in October, CPI report shows
- 10 Nov 13:52 +3h 45m Anadolu AgencyN US consumer prices rise 0.4% in October, exceeding forecasts
- 10 Nov 14:16 +4h 9m Just the NewsRC Consumer prices increase at annualized rate of 0.4% in October
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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