US officials see Chinese Taiwan invasion before 2028 as unlikely, citing military purges

US officials increasingly believe China is unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028, even though Xi Jinping ordered the military to be ready to take the island by force by 2027, according to people familiar with US thinking. 1 2 The sources, two serving US officials, a former official and another person, named two reasons: delays in military readiness caused by the anti-corruption campaign, and Beijing's wish to see the result of Taiwan's 2028 election. 1 2 They said the risk could rise if Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth straight term, especially with President Lai Ching-te re-elected; one official said "2028 becomes pretty sporty". 1 2

The purge has left only two active members, including Xi as chair, on the once seven-member Central Military Commission, and Chinese drills last year were smaller and less threatening, one official said. 1 2 Officials say Xi has not rescinded the 2027 goal, which analysts and US officials see as a readiness target rather than an invasion deadline; Beijing has never publicly confirmed it. 1 2 Officials gave mixed views on whether China would weigh the 2028 US presidential election; one said Beijing sees both major parties as largely aligned on Taiwan. 1 2

President Donald Trump has played down the invasion risk, saying Xi told him China would not invade while he is in office, and has held off approving a roughly $14 billion Taiwan arms package he called a "negotiating chip". 1 2 The Pentagon declined to comment, and the Chinese embassy and Taiwan's Washington office did not immediately respond. 1 2