Weak monsoon cuts India's farm output, reservoirs and power supply, causing blackouts

Centre · 1India received 759.4 mm of rain between June and September, against a long-term average of 868.6 mm. That is a 12.6% deficit, making it the driest monsoon in 11 years and the fourth driest this century, according to Deutsche Welle. 1 Centre · 2Climate scientist Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a former secretary in the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences, told DW that a severe El Nino was the main factor. Bloomberg, carried by the South China Morning Post, also attributes the weak monsoon to a record El Nino and calls it the weakest since 2015. 1 2 Centre · 1The 178 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission held 132.7 billion cubic metres, below the 10-year average of 151.1 billion. Hydropower output fell nearly 16% in September from a year earlier, according to Grid India data. 1

Centre · 2Electricity shortages reached 560 million kilowatt-hours in September, the highest monthly shortfall in more than three years, DW reported. Bloomberg, citing Grid Controller of India data, says the grid faced an average shortfall of nearly four gigawatts a day in the first 10 days of October. 1 2 Centre · 2Coal-fired plants, which supply about two-thirds of India's electricity, have been burning through their stocks. Both outlets report that around 40% to almost half of these plants had stocks below a quarter of the required level. Bloomberg cites the power ministry as of 10 October, and DW cites the Central Electricity Authority. 2 1 Centre · 1Bloomberg says hotter-than-normal weather raised demand for air conditioning and farm irrigation. It adds that a late burst of rain in eastern coal-mining regions cut production and hampered rail transport of coal. 2

Centre · 1Blackouts are hitting industry and households. Small steel mills in Chhattisgarh face outages of 10 to 12 hours a day, and a Ludhiana steel wire maker in Punjab reports unscheduled cuts of three to four hours. Some villages in Shamli district, Uttar Pradesh, face up to seven hours a day, according to Bloomberg. 2 Centre · 2Large industrial users that generate their own power say Coal India's priority for grid-connected generators leaves them short of fuel. Average premiums at Coal India spot sales jumped to 94% over the base price in September, from 59% in August. Coal India did not immediately respond to Bloomberg's request for comment. DW reports that the government has ordered some private industrial power plants to run at full capacity and feed surplus power into the grid. 2 1 Centre · 1On farms, Ramesh Reddy, a tomato grower in Kolar, Karnataka, lost his crop when his irrigation well ran dry. He had borrowed 250,000 rupees at 24% interest and is now seeking work as a security guard in Bengaluru. Nearly half of India's workforce depends on farming. 1

Centre · 1Economists quoted by DW describe a "twin shock" of lower farm incomes and higher food prices. ISignal analysis of Department of Consumer Affairs data found September onion prices 93% higher than a year earlier, sugar 28% higher and rice about 8% higher. A September survey by India's central bank found households expecting inflation to rise. 1 Centre · 2The next test is the winter (rabi) crop of wheat, mustard and chickpeas, which depends on soil moisture. Rajeevan warned that a warming climate could bring longer dry spells and more variable rainfall. Bloomberg says the power shortage shows how reliance on fossil fuels limits India's ability to respond to a changing climate. 1 2