Midterms: what Democrats and Republicans need to control the House and Senate
With the 3 November midterms a week away, ABC News sets out the seat arithmetic for each chamber, while a Democratic congresswoman argues in Newsweek that her party must be ready to govern if it wins.
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The story, neutrally told
Left · 1All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot on 3 November, and ABC News reports that majorities in both chambers are in play. ABC NewsLC “In the House, all 435 seats are on the ballot on Nov. 3 for two-year terms in the 120th Congress.”“In the Senate, 35 of the upper chamber’s 100 seats are on the ballot for six-year terms” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1In the House, ABC says Speaker Mike Johnson holds 218 Republican seats plus one independent, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who filed for reelection without party affiliation but generally supports the speaker; Democrats hold 214. ABC NewsLC “Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana currently holds a historically narrow majority: 218 Republicans alongside a single independent, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California”“Democrats hold 214 seats.” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1Two seats are vacant after April resignations of former Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales and former Florida Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who was rejected by voters in an August primary; ABC says this means Johnson effectively starts Election Night with a 220-215 edge over Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. ABC NewsLC “two vacancies in the House following the April resignations of lawmakers with ethics issues”“Johnson effectively begins with a 220-215 edge over Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.” Read at ABC News ↗
Left · 1For Jeffries to become speaker, ABC says Democrats need a net gain of three seats, taking them to at least 218, a simple majority. ABC NewsLC “Democrats must attain a net gain of three seats, pushing their numbers to at least 218 -- a simple majority.” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1In the Senate, Republicans under Majority Leader John Thune hold a 53-45 edge, and the two independents who caucus with Democrats bring the minority to 47 seats; 22 of the seats up are Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held. ABC NewsLC “Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans currently hold a 53-45 edge over Senate Democrats, who also have two independents that caucus with them, pushing the current minority to 47 seats.”“including 13 Democratic and 22 Republican seats” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1ABC says Republicans could lose a net three Senate seats and still keep control because Vice President JD Vance can break tie votes, so Chuck Schumer's Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber. ABC NewsLC “Thune could afford to have a net loss of three GOP seats and still retain the majority, given Vice President JD Vance’s constitutional power to break tie votes in the Senate.”“they’ll need to amass a net gain of four seats.” Read at ABC News ↗
Left · 1On the campaign trail, Johnson defends the Republican record, including the Working Families Tax Cuts Act (formerly Trump's "One, Big Beautiful Bill"), and the GOP's closing message warns against "Mamdani madness", a reference to New York City's democratic socialist mayor. ABC NewsLC “including the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, formerly known as Trump's "One, Big Beautiful Bill"”“the closing message from the GOP has also starkly warned voters not to embrace “Mamdani madness,”” Read at ABC News ↗ Left · 1Jeffries, who would be the first Black speaker, campaigns on affordability and anticorruption aimed at President Donald Trump and says Democrats are "on track" to win the House; Johnson says Republicans are bringing down the cost of living. ABC NewsLC “Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, is striving to become the first Black speaker in U.S. history, campaigning largely on a plank of affordability and anticorruption”“"We are bringing down the cost of living. We are providing more jobs and opportunity for more people.” Read at ABC News ↗ Centre · 1In a Newsweek opinion piece, Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-N.J., 11th District) writes that polls suggest Democrats are on the verge of a historic House win and possibly a Senate win, and argues the party must use any power it gains, citing voter discontent with the economy. NewsweekN “Democrats are on the verge of a historic win in the House and potentially the Senate.”“If voters hand Democrats power on November 3, they will expect us to use it.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Centre · 1Mejia says Democrats should pass a popular agenda and "dare" the president to veto it, and cites her proposal for a $25 minimum wage and polling on health care and drug prices; she also calls for ending what she calls an "illegal war". These are her own views, and Newsweek labels the piece as opinion. NewsweekN “Democrats across the ideological spectrum should be prepared to put a popular agenda on the president’s desk and dare him to veto it.”“That’s why I proposed raising the minimum wage to $25 an hour”“The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.” Read at Newsweek ↗
Every sentence links to the reporting it rests on. The pill in front of each says where its sources sit: Left, Centre or Right when one side supplies at least half of them, Mixed when they are evenly split. The number is how many outlets it cites.
Left1 outlet
- Framing
- ABC News (lean left) runs an explanatory, numbers-first piece on the seat math in both chambers, with campaign messages from both parties' leaders.
- Emphasis
- Exact seat counts, vacancies, net gains each party needs, and the Vance tie-break rule.
- Leaves out or plays down
- No polling or forecasts on how likely either party is to reach the thresholds.
- Charged language
- “Mamdani madness”
Centre1 outlet
- Framing
- Newsweek (centre) carries a first-person opinion by a sitting Democratic congresswoman, who assumes a Democratic win is likely and asks what the party should do with power.
- Emphasis
- Affordability, progressive primary wins, bold policy such as a $25 minimum wage, and the warning that Democrats must deliver or lose voters.
- Leaves out or plays down
- No Republican view or seat math; the poll claims and the description of the war as illegal are the author's assertions.
- Charged language
- “MAGA extremism”“illegal war”“This is not the moment for cowardice.”
Right1 outlet
No right outlet in our sources has covered this story yet.
What every side reports
- The midterm elections are on 3 November 2026.
- Democrats are campaigning on affordability and against Trump and the Republican-led Congress.
- Republicans currently hold majorities in the House and Senate.
Hakeem Jeffries person
Says Democrats are "on track" to win the House and campaigns on affordability and anticorruption aimed at Trump.
“The American people are fed up,” Jeffries told reporters this month, adding his belief that Democrats are "on track" to win the House majority.” — ABC News
Chuck Schumer person
As Senate Minority Leader, needs a net gain of four seats for Democrats to flip the Senate, according to ABC.
“they’ll need to amass a net gain of four seats.” — ABC News
Democratic Party party
Per Rep. Mejia's opinion piece, Democrats face a chance of winning and must show voters they will use power to improve lives rather than return to business as usual.
“If voters entrust us with power, our responsibility is to use it.” — Newsweek
2026 US midterm elections event
Held 3 November; ABC says early voting is underway and control of both chambers is in play.
“Early voting is underway in many states and Election Day is Nov. 3.” — ABC News
Left1 article
-
Control of Congress is up for grabs. What's the math for Democrats and Republicans?
Neutral Straightforward explainer of the seat arithmetic needed for each party to control the House and Senate.
Centre1 article
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NewsweekN · · Opinion
Congresswoman: If Democrats Win Power, What Will We Do With It? | Opinion
Critical Advocacy opinion by a Democratic House member urging her party to govern boldly and confront Trump and Republicans if it wins.
- 27 Oct 11:16 First ABC NewsLC Control of Congress is up for grabs. What's the math for Democrats and Republicans?
- 28 Oct 10:00 +22h 44m Fox NewsR Senate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country
- 28 Oct 10:11 +22h 55m NewsweekN Congresswoman: If Democrats Win Power, What Will We Do With It? | Opinion Opinion
Times are when each article was published, or when we first saw it if the outlet gave no time.
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