World Bank forecasts 23% rise in global commodity prices in 2026

Centre · 2The World Bank said on Wednesday 28 October that global commodity prices are set to rise 23 per cent in 2026, citing higher energy prices, shipping disruption linked to the Middle East war, and disrupted grain shipments in the Black Sea. 1 2 Centre · 2The forecast comes from its twice-yearly Commodity Markets Outlook, which expects overall commodity prices to ease by 7 per cent in 2027. 1 2 Centre · 2Energy prices are forecast to rise 32 per cent in 2026, which CNA described as their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 2 1

Centre · 2Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist, said: "Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," adding that higher energy costs and trade disruptions threaten to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth. 1 2 Centre · 2Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2 per cent in 2026; CNA called this the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 recession, and The National the largest since the 1980s oil embargo. CNA also reported that oil stocks have been depleted and oil demand is forecast to fall 2.5 per cent. 1 2 Centre · 2The bank projects Brent crude averaging about $91-92 a barrel in 2026 (CNA reported $92, The National $91, up from $69 in 2025), easing to $79 in 2027 according to The National, which noted Brent was trading at roughly $115 on Wednesday. 1 2

Centre · 2Food commodity prices are forecast to rise just over 10 per cent in 2026 and a further 7 per cent or more in 2027, a cumulative increase of nearly 18 per cent, according to CNA; fertiliser prices are forecast to rise 14 per cent in 2026 on a surge in urea prices before returning to 2025 levels in 2027. 1 2 Centre · 2Metals prices are projected to rise 25 per cent to a new high in 2026, with aluminium, copper and tin setting records; CNA added that precious metals are projected to surge 40 per cent on safe-haven demand, and The National that European natural gas prices could jump nearly 60 per cent. 1 2 Centre · 2The bank warned of risks: prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict escalates or damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues, and an adverse scenario combining a record El Niño, more Black Sea disruption, Middle East escalation and Russian infrastructure damage could push food prices 12 per cent above baseline. 1 2

Centre · 2The National reported that the adverse scenario would put Brent at an average of $105 a barrel in 2027, while CNA said it could trigger a food crisis like that of the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty. 2 1 Centre · 2The bank said it has provided $8.7 billion in support to 25 countries affected by the war, 10 of which redirected existing programmes and 19 of which accessed new financing, with some doing both; The National added it could scale support up to $80-100 billion from a current estimate of $50-60 billion if the fallout persists. 1 2 Centre · 2The National added context from the IMF, which earlier this month expected global headline inflation to rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026 and ease to 4.1 per cent next year; CNA noted the report came two days before G20 foreign ministers meet in Atlanta to focus on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. 2 1