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2026 US midterm elections: race dynamics and polling
2026 US midterm elections covering race dynamics, polling, voter fraud allegations, DOJ investigations, and electoral disputes.
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Thursday 29 October 2026
DOJ opens criminal probe of California noncitizen voting, subpoenas election officials
The Justice Department has issued federal grand jury subpoenas to California election officials in a criminal investigation of alleged noncitizen voting, days before the midterms. Los Angeles County's registrar called the move intimidation.
9 outlets -
Wednesday 28 October 2026
NYT reports Peltola campaign aides sought a second "Dan Sullivan" for Alaska Senate ballot
A New York Times report says aides to Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan to dilute Sen. Dan Sullivan's vote. Peltola's campaign and the DSCC deny involvement; commentators in right-leaning outlets disagree on its political and legal weight.
12 outlets -
Tuesday 27 October 2026
Federal prosecutors say 405 non-citizens cast over 1,500 ballots in Washington state
Federal prosecutors in Washington state say they have identified over 400 people they believe are non-citizens who voted, casting about 1,500 ballots, and have asked the state to set those ballots aside. The claims are Justice Department allegations, reported only by right-leaning outlets; the Secretary of State's office says such fraud is rare.
4 outlets -
Tuesday 27 October 2026
DOJ asks Washington state to set aside ballots from 400+ suspected noncitizens
The Justice Department asked Washington state on Oct. 26 to set aside any ballots cast by more than 400 registrants it suspects are noncitizens. The state's top election official is reviewing the request and criticised its timing and process.
9 outlets -
Monday 26 October 2026
Appeals court rejects DOJ bid to force California to set aside ballots
A federal appeals court ruled 2-1 on Monday against the Justice Department's effort to make California set aside ballots from voters the administration suspects are noncitizens, and on Friday the same panel again rejected the request, after a district judge also refused it. California's election is Nov 3.
11 outlets -
Monday 26 October 2026
Judge rules Maurene Comey's firing unlawful and reinstates her
U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman ruled that the Justice Department unlawfully fired prosecutor Maurene Comey, daughter of ex-FBI Director James Comey, in July 2025, and ordered retroactive reinstatement with backpay.
19 outlets -
Monday 26 October 2026
DOJ charges 48 noncitizens with voting crimes in five states, 28 in California
The Justice Department announced federal charges against 48 non-citizens in California, Florida, Nevada, New York and Pennsylvania over illegal voting and false registration. Twenty-eight of the defendants are in California, where the DOJ is also in a court fight with the state over about 20,000 voters it says are noncitizens.
5 outlets -
Monday 26 October 2026
Democrats, DOJ, RNC and House Republicans plan large Election Day monitoring for US midterms
Ahead of the US midterms, Democratic-aligned groups, the Justice Department, the Republican National Committee and House Republicans are each planning large observer efforts at polls and ballot counts. Coverage differs on whether the main concern is federal interference or election integrity and legal readiness.
13 outlets -
Sunday 25 October 2026
9th Circuit judges doubt DOJ bid to make California set aside ballots
A three-judge 9th Circuit panel heard a rare Sunday argument on the Justice Department's suit to force California to set aside mail-in ballots it says went to likely non-citizens. Judge Mark Bennett, a Trump appointee, voiced doubts.
6 outlets -
Sunday 25 October 2026
DOJ asks Ninth Circuit to make California set aside 20,000 ballots tied to suspected noncitizens
A Ninth Circuit panel heard the Justice Department's emergency request on 25 October to make California set aside about 20,000 ballots linked to suspected noncitizens. The judges questioned their own authority and the federal data, and had not ruled.
4 outlets -
Sunday 25 October 2026
DOJ sues Alaska to block Senate certification over two Dan Sullivans on ballot
The Justice Department sued Alaska election officials to stop certification of the Senate race if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing voter confusion over a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot. Attorney General Todd Blanche defends it as a ballot-preservation step; critics call it election interference.
26 outlets -
Friday 2 October 2026
Senate Leadership Fund pauses North Carolina Senate ad spending, moves money to Kansas
The Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund is halting new ad spending in North Carolina's Senate race and putting money into Kansas, first reported by Semafor. NBC News and the New York Post differ in how they frame the move and in the dollar figures they give.
7 outlets -
Thursday 1 October 2026
House Majority PAC and allied group report record $230 million third quarter
House Majority PAC and House Majority Forward say they raised a combined $230 million in the third quarter of 2026, their best quarter ever. Left and right outlets agree on the figure but frame what it means differently.
2 outlets -
Thursday 1 October 2026
Schumer says he will seek sixth term as Senate Democratic leader
Sen. Chuck Schumer told Politico and Punchbowl News he is running for Democratic leader again, whatever the midterm result, while four Democratic Senate nominees say they would not back him.
3 outlets -
Thursday 1 October 2026
Kansas Senate race tightens as Democrat Adam Hamilton challenges Sen. Roger Marshall
Polls show a near-tie in Kansas between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor and former Republican, as fuel prices, beef imports and Trump's unpopularity weigh on Republicans.
5 outlets -
Wednesday 30 September 2026
Trump says he has done a 'very bad job' explaining the economy ahead of midterms
At a White House event on 30 September, Trump said he has explained his economic record poorly while insisting the economy is doing well. Coverage differs on whether this signals voter anger and Republican alarm before the 3 November midterms.
7 outlets -
Wednesday 30 September 2026
Senate Democrats block House-passed congressional stock trading bill, 53-47
The Senate failed, 53-47, to reach the 60 votes needed to advance the Stop Insider Trading Act, which restricts stock trading by lawmakers and includes a voter ID provision. Democrats called the bill too weak and the ID language a poison pill.
6 outlets -
Wednesday 30 September 2026
Hispanic voters on Texas border sour on Trump ahead of November midterms
A New York Times report, relayed by Raw Story, finds many Hispanic voters in South Texas who backed Trump in 2024 are now angry over immigration enforcement and the economy, complicating Republican prospects in November.
2 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball moves 11 House races toward Democrats a month before midterms
The University of Virginia forecaster shifted 11 House ratings toward Democrats on 29 September, including Republican-held seats in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Coverage agrees on the shifts but differs in emphasis, with one outlet stressing a bleak GOP outlook and the other the limits of the ratings.
2 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
US consumer confidence falls to lowest level since 2014, Conference Board says
The Conference Board's September index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest since 2014, as fuel and goods prices rose ahead of the midterm elections.
3 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Democrats' Senate hopes in November: optimism and polling-error caution
Democrats are optimistic about flipping the Senate on Nov. 3, helped by Trump's low approval. Newsweek warns polls have underestimated Republicans before; a Hill opinion piece projects a Democratic takeover.
15 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Republicans warn party has neglected cost of living ahead of 3 November midterms
With the Senate about to leave to campaign, several Republican senators say the party has not done enough on prices, while a Washington Examiner columnist says candidates should highlight existing cost-of-living measures.
2 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Trump begins 32-day midterm campaign blitz as aides and polls point to Republican losses
Trump began a 32-day campaign push on 1 October, starting with Texas and Oklahoma, while polls and reports of White House pessimism point to a hard midterm for Republicans. Outlets differ on whether the tour shows strength or concern.
32 outlets -
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Polls after Trump's Texas midterm convention show Democrats gaining
Weeks after the Republican Party's two-day midterm convention in Texas, generic-ballot averages show Democrats' lead widening. Both a left-leaning and a right-leaning outlet say the event backfired for Republicans.
3 outlets -
Monday 28 September 2026
Republicans weigh campaigning with Trump as his ratings fall ahead of midterms
Coverage says Republican candidates are weighing whether to appear with President Trump as his public standing drops before the midterms. The New York Times reports five of nine Senate campaigns would not commit to joining him.
17 outlets -
Monday 28 September 2026
Fox News highlights Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton's past sermons on beef and diversity
Right-leaning outlets report that Fox News surfaced 2020 sermons by Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton, including a call to repent of climate impact such as beef production. Hamilton's campaign says Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has made similar remarks himself.
2 outlets